554
FXUS64 KLUB 271110
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
610 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 608 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOME OF
WHICH MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A SLIGHT COOLDOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
A SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SKIES START
TO CLEAR OUT AND WE HEAT UP AGAIN. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
ANOTHER HOT DAY, SIMILAR TO FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS NEAR 100F ON THE
CAPROCK AND 100-106F IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. BY PEAK HEATING, THE
NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING AT
LEAST SOME MODEST LARGE- SCALE ASCENT ATOP THE HOT, WEAKLY CAPPED
AIRMASS OVER WEST TEXAS. IN ADDITION, WE EXPECT A CHANNEL OF MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
RESULT SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND T-STORM
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE BROAD SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS - AND THIS TIME WE WON'T NEED TO WAIT FOR STORMS TO ROLL
OUT OF EASTERN NM. STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT AS
WE'VE SEEN RECENTLY, ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL
MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY LATE SATURDAY
EVENING, LEAVING A QUIET AND VERY MILD NIGHT.
SUNDAY SHOULD PRESENT A FAIRLY SIMILAR WEATHER PICTURE TO SATURDAY,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY IN THE SAME RANGE. THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE LWR MS VLY, WITH THE
CHANNEL OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STILL RESIDING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGE OF NOTE FROM SATURDAY WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING. THUS, WE'LL LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
LATE DAY AND EVENING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS, MORE LIKELY FOCUSED ON
THE CAPROCK DUE TO STRONGER CAPPING OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
FOR MON THRU WED OF NEXT WEEK, THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
CAUGHT IN-BETWEEN THE SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND A LARGE, QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE PACIFIC COAST. LOWER HEIGHTS OVER WEST TEXAS IN
THIS PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE A MODEST COOLING TREND, MORE APPARENT
ON THE CAPROCK, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S BY WED, THAN IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS, WHERE HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR 100. DAILY RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE, BUT MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT WEST BY
MIDWEEK DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RIDGING/TROUGHING SETS UP EXACTLY
WHICH WILL GUIDE THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CHANNEL AND DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN. LOOKING FARTHER OUT, A GRADUAL DRYING AND WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS
OVER TX, HOWEVER, A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD MAY REMAIN ACROSS
NM AND WTX AND PREVENT COMPLETELY BENIGN WX.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES
BUT COVERAGE AND TIMING CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW. CHECK
DENSITY ALTITUDE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...01
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