835
FXUS64 KLUB 271714
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1214 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1209 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOME OF
WHICH MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
- VERY HOT THIS WEEKEND, THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER MONDAY AND BEYOND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
UPPER RIDGING WHICH HAS BEEN PARKED TO OUR SOUTH FOR SEVERAL DAYS
HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO SHIFT EASTWARD, RESULTING IN A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS, VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY AS SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE
CO PLAINS KEEPS RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW IN
PLACE OVER WEST TX. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM JUST BELOW 100 TO ABOUT
105 BOTH DAYS, WITH THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS OFF THE CAPROCK. FOR BOTH
THE REST OF TODAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY, ROBUST DIURNAL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING MAINLY INTO THE 50S ON THE
CAPROCK. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED EASILY BOTH
AFTERNOONS RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BASICALLY ANYWHERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AFTER ABOUT
3 PM. STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FAVORING AREAS ON THE
CAPROCK DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS OUTFLOW COLLISIONS REINVIGORATE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, WITH SOME SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT LIKE WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER MARGINAL TODAY, SO STORM COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN QUITE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEPER
MOISTURE IS STILL PROGGED TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY, SO CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMPARED TO TODAY, ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF I-
27. GIVEN THE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD
BASES, THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND
GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 70 MPH BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY, WITH A LESSER THREAT
OF LARGE HAIL.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
FOR MON THRU WED OF NEXT WEEK, THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
CAUGHT IN-BETWEEN THE SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND A LARGE, QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE PACIFIC COAST. LOWER HEIGHTS OVER WEST TEXAS IN
THIS PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE A MODEST COOLING TREND, MORE APPARENT
ON THE CAPROCK, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S BY WED, THAN IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS, WHERE HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR 100. DAILY RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE, BUT MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT WEST BY
MIDWEEK DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RIDGING/TROUGHING SETS UP EXACTLY
WHICH WILL GUIDE THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CHANNEL AND DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN. LOOKING FARTHER OUT, A GRADUAL DRYING AND WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS
OVER TX, HOWEVER, A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD MAY REMAIN ACROSS
NM AND WTX AND PREVENT COMPLETELY BENIGN WX.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
VFR REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
PRD. -TSRA IS POSSIBLE AT ALL THREE TERMINALS AFTER 20Z. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND TSRA LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN THEREFORE
HAVE LEFT MENTION OF TSRA OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT AS THE
AFTERNOON CONTINUES THERE MAY BE A NEED TO ADD -TSRA TO AT LEAST
KLBB AND KPVW. LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z-08Z AT
KCDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PRD. EXPECTING 10-15G25KTS FROM THE S-SW.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...28
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