817
FXUS64 KLUB 280349
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1049 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1047 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPAND EAST ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUST
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
THE COUPLE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING HAVE CLEARED THE AREA. NO MORE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AND THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE
QUIET. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL BRING
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. LOWS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WILL
SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ACROSS THE REGION. THESE BREEZY
WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. ON THE
UPPER LEVELS, RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF STATES WILL AMPLIFY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS WESTERN CONUS. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THESE TWO UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL SHIFT MOSTLY ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ON
THE SURFACE, AN AMPLIFYING LEE TROUGH ACROSS COLORADO WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BRINGING BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE
START OF THE DAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO TRIPLE
TEMPERATURE HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A
DRYLINE WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR. WINDS BEHIND
THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST, HOWEVER SURFACE
FLOW IN FRONT OF THE DRYLINE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW COULD BRING IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF,
HOWEVER LOWER LEVELS STILL LOOK TO BE DRY WITH DEWPOINTS OFF THE
CAPROCK IN THE UPPER 50S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE DRYLINE
RETREATS BACK WEST LATER SUNDAY EVENING, DEW POINTS RECOVER UP TO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE, CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING
REACHED, AND GOOD MID TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING. LOCATION OF INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE DRYLINE. CAMS INDICATE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE ON THE
CAPROCK LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE DRYLINE STALLS, THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND EAST OFF THE CAPROCK THROUGH THE EVENING.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER THE MAIN HAZARD
EXPECTED IS STRONG WIND GUSTS. DRIER LOWER LEVELS INDICATES THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ELEVATED BRING STRONG WINDS UP TO 70 MPH.
THERE LOOKS TO BE DECENT POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS AS SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING DCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500
J/KG AND LOWER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 M/S. SMALL TO QUARTER SIZE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL IS LOW.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BEFORE MIDNIGHT, HOWEVER COULD SEE
SOME RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST
FEW NIGHTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH
LOWS IN THE 70S AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
THE KEY POINTS TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE THE CONTINUATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND DAILY STORM CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK. FLOW ALOFT
WILL VARY BETWEEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL CANADA WHILE THE UPPER RIDGING
REMAINS STAGNANT OVER SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. AT THE SAME TIME, A
SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS
REGIME WILL LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION, "COOLING" TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER, PREDOMINATELY MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
EVERYDAY THIS WEEK WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH SOME LOCALIZED
AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK STILL SEEING TRIPLE DIGITS. MULTIPLE PASSING
UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL BRING STORM CHANCES EVERYDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK.
PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD DAILY STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, HOWEVER MODELS NOW INDICATE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGING
WILL BUILD BACK WEST ACROSS TEXAS, EFFECTIVELY DRYING OUT THE
REGION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
VFR WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TSRA AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING, WITH CURRENT TRENDS SUGGESTING KCDS WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF T-STORM IMPACTS, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. OTHERWISE, A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY HIGH ENOUGH AT KLBB AND
KPVW TO KEEP THEM OUT OF LLWS CRITERIA, BUT WE KEPT A LLWS
MENTION AT KCDS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TSRA CHANCES WILL
RETURN FOR ALL TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...33
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