845
FXUS64 KLUB 281740
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1240 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE I-27 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS EVENING, SOME OF WHICH MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS.
- CHANCES FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY
ON THE CAPROCK.
- DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
A MODEST BLOCKING PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A PAIR OF CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOWS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
EAST WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF RELATIVELY UNSETTLED
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WEST TX THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD.
THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ALLOW DEEP SURFACE TROUGHING TO PERSIST
OVER EASTERN CO/NM AND CONTINUING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW OVER WEST TX, WITH A DIFFUSE DRYLINE PROGGED TO ESTABLISH NEAR
THE I-27 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. ROBUST DIURNAL HEATING (HIGHS IN
THE LOW 100S TODAY) WILL ERODE RESIDUAL CIN ON THE CAPROCK, WITH
WEAK SURFACE CONFLUENCE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PLENTIFUL MIDLEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE,
BUT THE GENERALLY WEAK FLOW AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE THREAT
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER QUITE LOW WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEAR OR
BELOW 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER, THE DEEPLY MIXED AND RELATIVELY DRY
SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL STILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 70 MPH. OVERALL STORM COVERAGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN,
BUT GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BEST STORM CHANCES BEING
ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR THROUGH LATE EVENING, WITH
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP, BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT (ALTHOUGH VERY BREEZY).
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY SIMILAR ON MONDAY COMPARED TO
TODAY WITH A DIFFUSE DRYLINE AGAIN EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH OVER THE I-
27 CORRIDOR, RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS. DIURNAL MIXING IS PROGGED TO BE A BIT LESS AGGRESSIVE ON
MONDAY WHICH IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RESULT IN GREATER STORM
COVERAGE ON MONDAY COMPARED TO TODAY, ALTHOUGH WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL
STILL LIMIT THE LONGEVITY AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL STORMS. SEVERE
WIND GUSTS WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN HAZARDS, WITH SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS
ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN BETTER INSTABILITY AND PWATS GENERALLY ABOVE
1.25". TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON MONDAY COMPARED TO
TODAY, ALTHOUGH HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, WHICH WILL IN TURN KEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND A RESPECTABLE PLUME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE OVER WEST TX. MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TO CONTINUING AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TRANSITING JUST TO OUR WEST, WITH
HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CAPROCK. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS ALSO EXPECTED DURING THE TUE-WED
TIMEFRAME WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. DRIER AND HOTTER
WEATHER IS THEN PROGGED TO RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WEAKENS AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS BACK WESTWARD. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN AT SOME
POINT OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS MOVES
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SCENARIO IS VERY
LOW AT THIS LEAD TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING AT
ALL SITES, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...19
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