184
FXUS64 KLUB 290506
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1206 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1205 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
THE DRYLINE THAT STALLED PARTWAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREAS TODAY
HAS MOSTLY RETREATED FROM THE REGION. CURRENT SURFACE DEW POINT
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE DRYLINE NOW SPANS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEASTERN NM. SURFACE FLOW HAS SHIFTED TO
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE, FILLING IN SOME
MOISTURE ALLOWING DEW POINTS TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SHOWERS MOVING IN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS, HOWEVER VERY LITTLE SHEAR IS HINDERING ANY
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT, EFFECTIVELY KILLING THESE STORMS BEFORE THEY
CAN RAMP UP TO SEVERE. A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS
EVENING STORMS CAN BE SEEN PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH THESE OUTFLOWS,
HOWEVER THE CHANCE IS LOW. YOU MAY ONLY SEE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH
WITH THESE OUTFLOWS.
STORMS, ALTHOUGH DISAPPOINTING TONIGHT, REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS MAKING IT ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. ON THE UPPER LEVELS, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
SIT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL AMPLIFY DOWN THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. WITH THE CWA SITTING
BETWEEN THE TWO DISTURBANCES, FLOW ALOFT WILL VARY FROM SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY. DECENT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO USHER IN
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVERHEAD. MONDAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A
MULTI-DAY "COOL" DOWN AS THE UPPER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT
HEIGHT DECREASES. AREAS ON THE CAPROCK WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE
TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SUSTAIN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS, THEREFORE HIGHS
WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S. SADLY, FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK, YOU
CAN STILL EXPECT TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS SEEING BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY
TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE SET UP WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER WE SAW HOW THAT PANNED OUT. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH BACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY BEFORE
SETTING UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR. CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE DRYLINE WILL AIDE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CAMS INDICATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS ON THE CAPROCK BEFORE EXPANDING OFF THE CAPROCK. SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LOW. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, VERY SIMILAR TO THIS EVENING, WITH WEAK
SHEAR VALUES (AROUND 15 M/S) HINDERING THUNDERSTORM GROWTH. HOWEVER,
WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS INDICATING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS, CAN
EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. GUSTY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE WIND CRITERIA. DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DCAPE
VALUES UP TO 1500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE IS LOW, A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH UP TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OF THE CWA BEFORE MIDNIGHT, LEAVING THE REST
OF THE NIGHT QUIET WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL START OFF WITH A HOT TUESDAY WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGING
MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL REMAIN STAGNANT. THE
UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL PUSH EAST SPANNING
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN CONUS. THIS REGIME WILL KEEP MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERHEAD. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE
REGION WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A SIMILAR SET UP IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A SECONDARY
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WESTERN
CONUS AND THE UPPER RIDGING OVER SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, HOWEVER SOME AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS COULD STILL SEE TRIPLE DIGITS. AN UPPER
PATTERN CHANGE WILL SLIGHTLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY OUT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY AS
THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK WEST ACROSS OUR REGION. HEIGHT
INCREASES DUE TO THE RIDGING WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE TRIPLE DIGITS AS WELL AS SUBSIDENCE WILL PUT AN END TO OUR DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD FOR
ALL TAF SITES. LOW CIGS WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE A RUN AT THE REGION
EARLY MONDAY MORNING FROM THE SOUTH BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND
TIMING IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THE MOMENT.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01
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