043
FXUS64 KLUB 292334
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
634 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 631 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. STRONG WINDS ARE THE GREATEST HAZARD.
- STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- GENERALLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, A DRYLINE WILL SETUP TODAY, GENERALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF I-27. MUCH OF DAY WILL REMAIN CAPPED UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN US.
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING AS A
TROUGH DIGS INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO NOT
RAMP UP UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS, HOWEVER WITH LATER SUNSETS THIS
TIME OF YEAR, THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
THIS FORCING AS WELL AS SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION BETWEEN THE TWO
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES, WHICH WILL LEAD TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION
ALONG THE DRYLINE. ALL CAMS INDICATE CONVECTION LASTING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED, A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND/OR
DOWNBURSTS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY, WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOW 90S TO LOW TRIPLE-DIGITS OFF THE CAPROCK.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AGAIN BRINGING VERY MILD
TUESDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
PATTERN AND BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE SHALLOW AS IT TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH.
NONETHELESS, SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS COOLING AROUND 3-
5 DEGREES FROM TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP, ALTHOUGH
SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST THAN THE ONE TODAY. AGAIN,
GREATEST FORCING WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS WHICH IS
WHEN MOST STORMS WOULD INITIATE. THESE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WEST
OF I-27, WITH STRONG WINDS BEING THE GREATEST THREAT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL BECOME FULLY ABSORBED BACK INTO
THE MAIN FLOW PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY, UPPER HEIGHTS WILL FALL FURTHER AS THE BROAD RIDGE TO
THE EAST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. AS SUCH, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY "COOLER," NEAR 90 ON THE CAPROCK AND MID-TO-UPPER 90S OFF
THE CAPROCK. A DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES WILL BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, MAINLY OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. AS WITH
PREVIOUS DAYS, WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD. STORM CHANCES
APPEAR TO DIMINISH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
POTENT SHORTWAVES OR SIGNIFICANT JETS, SO IT LOOKS TO BE A HOT AND
DRY 4TH OF JULY AT THIS POINT. MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE
THEREAFTER WITH GFS INDICATING AN UPPER LOW BECOMING CUTOFF OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS LEADING TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER STORM CHANCES FOR OUR
AREA, WHEREAS ECMWF ONLY SHOWS A SHALLOW TROUGH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY
STRONG SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING. SCATTERED TSRA REMAIN WEST OF THE
TERMINALS AT 23Z, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE IMPACTS IN THE
FORM OF STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO KLBB AND KPVW THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS EVENING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY AT KLBB EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT PROBABILITY
OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...30
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