635
FXUS64 KLUB 300331
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1031 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1026 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATER TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- AFTER A SLIGHT "COOL" DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES
WARM UP AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
DRYLINE CONVECTION WAS MUCH MORE ACTIVE THIS EVENING COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE I-27 CORRIDOR WITH AN OUTFLOW PUSHING EAST OFF THE CAPROCK.
THESE STORMS ARE TRENDING WEAKER, HOWEVER IF THEY ARE ABLE TO
PERSIST, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EXPANDING OFF THE CAPROCK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH
LITTLE TO NO FORCING WITH THE DRYLINE RETREATED BACK TO NM. HOWEVER,
SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY PERSIST AFTER MIDNIGHT, ESPECIALLY OFF THE
CAPROCK. UNTIL THEN, DOWNBURSTS AND OUTFLOWS PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50-60 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. ONCE THE
STORMS CLEAR THE AREA, THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET.
MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
YOU COULD SEE SOME ROGUE WIND GUSTS IF OUTFLOWS FROM THIS EVENING
STORMS PERSIST OVERNIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER
RIDGING DOMINATING SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH SITS
ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD SPANNING MUCH OF WESTERN CONUS.
AT THE SAME TIME, THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND SOUTHWEST
ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP SUBTROPICAL MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERHEAD.
SLIGHT HEIGHT DECREASES DUE TO THE UPPER PATTERN WILL "COOL"
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE MORE DEGREES FOR TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE REGION
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 90S, HOWEVER THE EVER SO LUCKY SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL TRIGGER THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS COLORADO. THIS SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SUSTAIN THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A DIFFUSED MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AS IT EXPANDS SOUTH
ACROSS NM AND PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS AHEAD OF THIS
GRADIENT WILL SLIGHTLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW AS WELL AS A PASSING UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL AIDE IN DEVELOPING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN
NM TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE EXPANDING INTO OUR REGION. AS THE
DIFFUSED MOIST BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE CAPROCK, CAMS INDICATE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DIFFUSED BOUNDARY WITH RESULT IN A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR. THESE
STORMS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS.
WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN INVERTED-V SHAPE, MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED. SIMILAR TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENINGS, THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS GUSTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED WITH WEAK SHEAR (AROUND 15-20 M/S) HINDERING
UPDRAFT GROWTH. SOUNDINGS SHOW DCAPE VALUES UP TO 1300 J/KG
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS WITH THESE SHORT-LIVED
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE HAIL IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS,
HOWEVER SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
VICINITY OF DOWNBURSTS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION AROUND
MIDNIGHT, HOWEVER SOME RAIN SHOWERS COULD PERSIST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE QUIET WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO UPPER
70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL BECOME FULLY ABSORBED BACK INTO
THE MAIN FLOW PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY, UPPER HEIGHTS WILL FALL FURTHER AS THE BROAD RIDGE TO
THE EAST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. AS SUCH, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY "COOLER," NEAR 90 ON THE CAPROCK AND MID-TO-UPPER 90S OFF
THE CAPROCK. A DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES WILL BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, MAINLY OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. AS WITH
PREVIOUS DAYS, WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD. STORM CHANCES
APPEAR TO DIMINISH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
POTENT SHORTWAVES OR SIGNIFICANT JETS, SO IT LOOKS TO BE A HOT AND
DRY 4TH OF JULY AT THIS POINT. MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE
THEREAFTER WITH GFS INDICATING AN UPPER LOW BECOMING CUTOFF OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS LEADING TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER STORM CHANCES FOR OUR
AREA, WHEREAS ECMWF ONLY SHOWS A SHALLOW TROUGH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY
STRONG SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING. SCATTERED TSRA REMAIN WEST OF THE
TERMINALS AT 23Z, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE IMPACTS IN THE
FORM OF STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO KLBB AND KPVW THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS EVENING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY AT KLBB EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT PROBABILITY
OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...30
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