053
FXUS64 KLUB 302320
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
620 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 615 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN EXPECTED TODAY, GENERALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF I-27. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
- STORM CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT COOLDOWN WITH OVERNIGHT RAIN
CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PIVOT ACROSS THE WEST WHILE A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US. A SOUTHERLY PLUME
OF MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN LOOKS ALMOST IDENTICAL AS YESTERDAY WITH MUCH
OF THE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH NOT OCCURRING UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. CAMS
AGAIN INDICATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. MUCH OF IT
SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND WEST OF I-27 WHERE THE GREATEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE PARAMETERS WILL BE PRESENT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND UP TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL. THESE
SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP LOWS MILD OVERNIGHT, RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. SUBTLE UPPER HEIGHT FALLS DURING THE DAY AS
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WEAKENS WILL BRING HIGHS DOWN TO NEAR 90 ON
THE CAPROCK, HOWEVER HIGHS OFF THE CAPROCK WILL REMAIN IN THE MID-TO-
UPPER 90S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
CONVECTIVE INITIATION, MOSTLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. FOLLOWING THIS, RISING HEIGHT VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASE HUMIDITY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH 90S AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON THE 4TH OF JULY. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY
POST-INDEPENDENCE DAY, BUT STILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 90S EACH
AFTERNOON. THERE EXISTS A CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN IS UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VCTS WILL IMPACT KLBB AND KPVW THROUGH THE EVENING,
WITH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED -TSRA BY LATE TONIGHT, DECREASING IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF THE KLBB TERMINAL
AROUND DAYBREAK, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAR TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME FOR A TAF MENTION.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....RMS
AVIATION...12
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