481
FXUS64 KLUB 010324
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1024 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1021 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- HOT AND BREEZY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CAPROCK.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH A SUBTLE COOLDOWN AND RETURN OF
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WHILE OFF TO THE EAST AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FLATTEN SLIGHTLY AS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PROVINCES. NONETHELESS, SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION,
TRANSPORTING IN MODEST SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN ORIENTED ACROSS THE CAPROCK,
WHICH COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SUBTLE DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE MAIN
FLOW. IN ADDITION, A SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL AID IN SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE IN
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS, WE CAN EXPECT YET ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S. IN FACT, A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS COULD EVEN SEE A FEW TRIPLE DIGITS. THAT
BEING SAID, ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN PLACE WILL LIKELY BREAK BY
THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE T'S WILL BE EASILY ACHIEVABLE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA DEPICT MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH
DECENT MLLR AROUND 7 TO 8 C/KM. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS, SHEAR
VALUES LOOK TO BE QUITE TAME, WITH MAJOR THREATS BEING STRONG WIND
GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND LATE EVENING, DIMINISHING AROUND MIDNIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAYBREAK HOURS
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
70S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
BY THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS DESCRIBED IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE THAT WE BEGIN TO SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO OUR EAST BEGIN TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. AS A RESULT, WE WILL
LIKELY SEE DRYING CONDITIONS AND THE CONTINUATION OF WARMER
AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A CHANCE FOR A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY, PRIMARILY
ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. HOWEVER, WITH MOISTURE NOT AS POTENT AS
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING WILL
LEAD TO A VERY SMALL CHANCE. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THEY
WILL LIKELY BE HIGH-BASED GIVEN HE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. THEREFORE, MAIN THREATS
WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. CONDITIONS LOOK
TO DRY OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE LIMITS OVERALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER, SOME GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL
INDICATING THE ISOLATED CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS PERTURBATIONS TRACK DOWN THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND INTO OUR AREA. THEREAFTER, THINGS BECOME
MURKY WITH MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO OUR NEXT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL OPT TO MAINTAIN NBM
MENTIONABLE POPS UNTIL GUIDANCE BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS
TO CONTINUE THURSDAY, INCREASING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS BY INDEPENDENCE DAY IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105
DEGREES OFF THE CAPROCK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO HINT
AT A COOL DOWN THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
RETURNING TO THE REGION. HOWEVER, THIS "COOLDOWN" WILL NOT DO MUCH
WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE 90S EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VCTS WILL IMPACT KLBB AND KPVW THROUGH THE EVENING,
WITH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED -TSRA BY LATE TONIGHT, DECREASING IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF THE KLBB TERMINAL
AROUND DAYBREAK, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAR TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME FOR A TAF MENTION.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
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