413
FXUS64 KLUB 081043
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
543 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 543 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
- DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN BEGINNING SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
AFTER A QUIET AND PLEASANT TUESDAY, A SIMILAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS
EXPECTED. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THESE UPSLOPE WINDS ARE CAUSING HIGHER TERRAIN
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NM. HOWEVER, THESE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH OUR AREA. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH
CURRENTLY ACROSS CO IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE MORNING. AT
THE MOMENT, CHANCES FOR THESE RAIN SHOWERS ARE LOW, HOWEVER CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE, THE NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR
TO TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND HOT TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGING
THAT EXPANDED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THICKNESS INCREASES DUE TO THE RIDGE WILL SLIGHTLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK
AND TRIPLE DIGITS OFF THE CAPROCK. EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
GIVING WAY TO BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER THE SURFACE TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES AND A
SECONDARY LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN CO AND
NORTHERN NM. SUBSIDENCE BELOW THE RIDGING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHERN NM. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
HELP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. CAMS ARE
INDICATING THESE STORMS WILL DIE OFF BEFORE REACHING OUR CWA BORDER,
HOWEVER THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR THESE STORMS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES
AND MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN CORNER. IF THIS DOES OCCUR,
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SEVERE AND SHORT-LIVED.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS HOT TEMPERATURES AND DAILY STORM
CHANCES. THE UPPER RIDGING MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION
WILL SLIGHTLY RETREAT THURSDAY, HOWEVER SLIGHT THICKNESS INCREASES
AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BRING HOT TEMPERATURES AGAIN. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAPROCK AND TRIPLE DIGITS
OFF THE CAPROCK. A PASSING UPPER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL AIDE IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NM AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST WITH THE AIDE OF
UPPER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, HOWEVER MODELS INDICATE STORMS WILL REACH
THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE QUICKLY
DYING OUT. THE REST OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. A
SIMILAR SET UP IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, HOWEVER WITH BETTER SURFACE
MOISTURE, WE WILL SEE HIGHER AND MORE COVERAGE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THE UPPER RIDGING WILL SLIGHTLY SHIFT NORTH ALTHOUGH STILL SITTING
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER UPPER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL
PASS OVER NM AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE EXPANDING INTO OUR REGION. BETTER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OFF THE CAPROCK. OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CONUS,
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHILE A
VERY POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH SITS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH THIS REGIME AND MULTIPLE PASSING SHORTWAVES
WITH BRING DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WE
WILL SEE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 10S AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
UPPER PATTERN CHANGE AS WELL AS DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER HIGHS STILL REMAIN IN
THE 90S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
VFR AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...19
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