501
FXUS64 KLUB 082315
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
615 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 612 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
- DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE STORM CHANCES ARE
GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK.
- HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
SLIGHT COOLDOWN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
AT MIDDAY WEDNESDAY, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXISTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE WAS POSITIONED OVER THE SW
CONUS, WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SFC LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER SW KS, WHICH CONTRIBUTED TO BREEZY SW WINDS THIS
MORNING. AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTS THIS AFTERNOON, MODEST SFC
PRESSURE FALLS OVER SE CO WILL TURN WINDS TO S/SE LOCALLY.
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH NM/CO BY
THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EAST, BUT ANY UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BE FOCUSED TOWARDS W KS, THUS THE
EXPECTATION IS OUR FORECAST AREA STAYS DRY TONIGHT.
FOR THURS, A SIMILAR EVOLUTION TO TODAY IS EXPECTED AS ANOTHER
IMPULSE TRAVERSES THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN
SW SFC WINDS DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY S/SE FLOW DURING THURS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WED, PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW
TRIPLE DIGITS OFF THE CAPROCK. THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY DEEPER, AND TRACK A BIT FURTHER SOUTHEAST, THAN TONIGHT'S
WAVE, WHICH DOES INTRODUCE SOME LOW PRECIP CHANCES (10-20%) TO
THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURS EVENING, BUT THE
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOCUSED FROM I-40
NORTHWARD INTO W KS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE, WITH HEIGHT RISES OCCURRING TO OUR WEST AND
NORTH AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND.
WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME MODEST HEIGHT RISES LOCALLY, IT WILL NOT
BE SUFFICIENT TO STYMIE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AND AT LEAST SOME
PRECIP CHANCES EXIST WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA FRI-TUES, GENERALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
FRI EVENING FEATURES A SIMILAR PATTERN TO WED-THURS, THUS PRECIP
CHANCES ARE ONCE AGAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA (20%) AND
INCREASE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. PRECIP CHANCES EXPAND AND
INCLUDE MUCH OF THE REGION BOTH SAT EVENING (20-50%) AND SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING (20-40%). A SLOW MOVING FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY BE NUDGED SOUTHWARD BY THE SFC HIGH
THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE. AS
THIS OCCUR, THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF
OUR AREA, LOWERING THE PRECIP CHANCES. THE MODEL BLEND KEPT A LOW
CHANCE (20%) OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON MON/TUES, BUT THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES (30-40%) WILL BE
TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WHILE ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
APPEAR UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT WEEK OWING TO WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND UNINSPIRING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIMILAR THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN TREND
SLIGHTLY COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK (HIGHS ON THE CAPROCK IN THE LOW
90S, MID 90S OFF THE CAPROCK).
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
VFR TAFS THRU 00Z/09 WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE. JW
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...13
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