366
FXUS64 KLUB 090329
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1029 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1021 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
- DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- HOT TEMPERATURES PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
CURRENT RADAR IMAGER SHOWS A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST ENTERING
NORTHWEST PARMER COUNTY. THIS OUTFLOW WILL BRING SOME BREEZY WINDS
AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH TO NORTHWESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER, THE BOUNDARY
SEEMS TO BE WEAKENING QUICKLY. THEREFORE, THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SMALL, SHORT-
LIVED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVED
ACROSS EASTERN NM. HOWEVER, IN IT'S WEAKENED STATE, CHANCES FOR THIS
WILL BE LOW. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
QUIET WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
THURSDAY WILL BE HOT WITH SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER
RIDGING DOMINATING SOUTHWESTERN CONUS INCLUDING MUCH OF WEST TEXAS
AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
RETREAT WEST THROUGH THE DAY, HOWEVER THE EDGE WILL STILL CLIP OUR
CWA BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THICKNESS INCREASES DUE TO
THE UPPER RIDGING WILL WARM TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK TO JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVEL
OFF THE CAPROCK. SURFACE WINDS WILL START OFF THE DAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY. A VERY SIMILAR THUNDERSTORM SET UP AS
TODAY IS EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
IN EASTERN NM. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP IN THE STORMS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST TO OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE SEE-SAWED WITH
HOW FAR THESE STORMS MAKE IT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THE PAST COUPLE
OF FORECASTS. THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE, HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT THESE STORMS LEAKING INTO
THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH THESE
STORMS. AT MOST WE WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME BREEZY WINDS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
FRIDAY WILL BE A RINSE AND REPEAT OF THURSDAY WITH HOT TEMPERATURES
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA. UPPER
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CONUS. WITH THE
FORECAST AREA SITTING BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER DISTURBANCES,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN
EASTERN NM ONCE AGAIN. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL GIVE THE PUSH
THESE STORMS NEED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO OUR CWA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF EXPANDING INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW
WITH THESE STORMS, HOWEVER COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND OUTFLOWS.
HOT TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO TRIPLE DIGITS CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEGINNING SUNDAY
THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. MULTIPLE
UPPER SHORTWAVES PASSING EVERYDAY WILL CONTINUE DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY PUSHING THE MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CWA EFFECTIVELY CUTTING SHORT THE DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THE CURRENT NBM KEEPS PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY, HOWEVER
COULD SEE CHANGES TO FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE NBM CATCHES UP TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE WEAK FRONT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
VFR TAFS THRU 00Z/09 WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE. JW
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...13
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