268
FXUS64 KLUB 091700
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1200 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1158 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE A
MODEST COOLING AND WETTER TREND DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST EACH
AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS.
- THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW ALTHOUGH A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
INFLUENCE FROM THE H5 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST TEXAS/PANHANDLE REGIONS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE FA FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BROADLY STRETCHED 595 DAM UPPER HIGH. DESPITE THE
MODEST DECREASE IN GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS, WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING TRANSLATING FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAA THROUGH THE
LOWER TO MID-LEVEL AIDING TO AN INCREASE IN THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS
THE REGION. AS A RESULT, WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER TODAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 25C TO 30C
SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS. NBM
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE ALTERED USING A BLEND OF NBM 50TH
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WARMING TREND GIVEN NBM SEEMED A BIT TOO COOL
GIVEN HOW HOT IT GOT YESTERDAY WITH NOT AS STRONG WAA. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, SUBTLE DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE
MAIN FLOW ALONG WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND BY LATE AFTERNOON
WILL WORK TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER, STEERING FLOW REMAINS
FAIRLY WEAK WHICH LEADS TO THE QUESTION IF STORMS CAN MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. IF STORMS CAN MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA THIS EVENING, THEY WILL LIKELY BE HIGH-BASED, GIVEN THE EVIDENT
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THEREFORE A FEW STRONG
THE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
TONIGHT, EXPECT QUIET AND MILD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE, SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AS IT BEGINS TO TRANSLATE SLOWLY
EASTWARD. IN RESPONSE, WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN HEIGHT VALUES
WHILE THICKNESS VALUES REMAIN STAGNANT ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON THANKS TO LEE TROUGHING CONTINUING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CO BEFORE BACKING ONCE AGAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, GIVEN WHERE THIS LOOKS TO SET UP MOST PRECIPITATION FROM
THIS AREA OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER,
MOIST UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL WORK WITH RIPPLES WITHIN
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO GENERATE HIGHER TERRAIN
THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO. GIVEN BETTER STEERING FLOW
ALOFT, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR FRIDAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO TRACK
INTO PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN-CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS LOW,
HOWEVER GIVEN INVERTED-V PROFILE SOUNDINGS WE CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUST WITH STRONGER STORM CORES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH WOBBLE ITSELF EASTWARD, CENTERING ITSELF OVER THE
CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ITSELF OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO VEER OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BECOMING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE DIVERGES SLIGHTLY ON THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER HIGH AS
IT TRACKS EAST, WITH MODELS LIKE THE ECMWF KEEPING THE BASE OF THE
HIGH OVER THE CAPROCK REGIONS, SUPPRESSING MOST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FROM THE REGION. WHILE MODELS LIKE THE GFS KEEP THE BASE OF THE HIGH
TO OUR NORTH ALLOWING FOR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER HIGH SETS UP WILL BE THE MAIN
FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PACKAGE. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION IS
UNCERTAIN, THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN "COOLER" TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO THE CAPROCK REGIONS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM H7 TO THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO BACK OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPANDING SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH
SHIFTING THE SURFACE TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NM. AS A RESULT, WE WILL
BEGIN TO SEE MOIST RETURN FLOW SET-UP ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD
NOT ONLY INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER TO MID-LEVELS BUT ALSO
HELP LIMIT AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM REACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MAY FILTER IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...24
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