316
FXUS64 KLUB 100337
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1037 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1033 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CAPROCK FRIDAY EVENING. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW, BUT CAN
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND OUTFLOWS WITH THESE STORMS.
- SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND.
- COOLER HIGHS CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY SLIGHT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NM. THESE STORMS
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO OUT CWA, HOWEVER THEY ARE
DIMINISHING RAPIDLY AS THE CROSS THE STATE BORDER. AN OUTFLOW FROM A
STORM ACROSS ROOSEVELT COUNTY IN NM IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH
COCHRAN. THE OUTFLOW IS NOT VERY STRONG WITH THE STRONGEST GUST
MEASURED BY A WTM IS 32 MPH. SIMILAR TO OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER
STORMS, IT IS EXPECTED TO DIE OFF QUICKLY. ONCE THESE STORMS CLEAR,
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION VARY BETWEEN THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGING
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WHILE A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
EXPAND NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE DAY
PROLONGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. FRIDAY IS LOOKING TO BE A RINSE
AND REPEAT OF TODAY. THICKNESS INCREASES DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGING
WILL PROLONG HOT TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE CAPROCK WHILE JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OFF THE CAPROCK. A VERY SIMILAR THUNDERSTORM SET UP AS THIS
EVENING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING. SURFACE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CO AND NORTHERN NM. SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
IN NM. NORTHEASTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL GIVE THE PUSH FOR THE STORMS TO
TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. COMPARED THIS EVENING, WIDER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE CAPROCK IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
EVENING. SOME CAMS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS LASTING OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CAPROCK. THIS FORECASTER IS UNCERTAIN IN STORMS
PREVAILING OVERNIGHT IN THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER,
CAN EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS AND OUTFLOWS. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
HOT TEMPERATURES AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IS THE MAIN THEME
FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE UPPER HIGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES AT THE SAME TIME AS IT SHIFTS EAST
TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING WIDER SPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GREATEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHEN THE UPPER HIGH SITS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS AS AN
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF STATES BRINGING
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. PROLONGED STORMS WILL SLIGHTLY COOL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER, SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK COULD
STILL SEE TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS
PROGGED TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK EFFECTIVELY PUSHING
THE MOIST AIR OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. NBM HAS BACKED OFF ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING MONDAY, HOWEVER STILL HAS SLIGHT
CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE WEAK FRONT. THE SLIGHT COOL DOWN
WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW EXPANDS
WEST ACROSS TEXAS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED AT
LEAST THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
HOT SOUTHERLY BREEZES (CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE) WILL VEER
SOUTHWESTERLY LATE THIS EVENING. GUSTINESS WILL BE REDUCED THIS
EVENING, BUT LIKELY RENEW LATE TONIGHT AS A MODEST LLJ KEEPS THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXED. ANOTHER LULL IN THE GUSTINESS WILL FOLLOW
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH WITH RENEWED
GUSTINESS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION APPROACHING THE REGION FROM
EASTERN NEW MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO FADE WELL BEFORE REACHING THE
TERMINALS, THOUGH RESIDUAL MID-HIGH CLOUD IS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD
THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. REGARDLESS, VFR WILL BE THE RULE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...23
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