189
FXUS64 KLUB 111728
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1228 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- SLIGHT COOL DOWN WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS, THOUGH MANY SPOTS WILL
REMAIN DRY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH LOW (15-30%) THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DAILY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
ANOTHER LATE-EVENING LINE OF CONVECTION IS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS CONVECTION WAS A
LITTLE SLOWER TO GET GOING THAN YESTERDAY EVENING'S STORMS, BUT THE
LINE IS MORE VIGOROUS AT 03Z THAN IT'S COUNTERPART 24 HOURS AGO.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WANES AND INHIBITION INCREASES WITH EASTERN
EXTENT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, INCREASED SHEAR FROM YESTERDAY
(EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS) IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THIS
CONVECTION, WITH GREATER INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
THE WEST TEXAS MESONET (WTM) NEAR ROMERO EVEN MEASURED A PEAK GUST
OF 63 MPH AT 8:25 PM, WITH THE VEGA WTM REACHING 59 MPH AT 9:46 PM.
GIVEN THE TRENDS, EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO LAST LONGER INTO THE LATE
EVENING/NIGHT THAN YESTERDAY, BREACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
CWA BEFORE WANING AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
50 MPH WILL BE THE GREATEST RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY, WITH HOPEFULLY
SOME MEANINGFUL RAIN TOO. OUTFLOW FROM THIS CONVECTION COULD HAVE AN
IMPACT ON WHERE STORMS REDEVELOP ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LOOKING AT THE BIGGER PICTURE, AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING WILL AMPLIFY AND EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST, THAT WILL PIVOT INLAND ON
SUNDAY. THANKFULLY, THE CENTER OF THIS HEAT DOME WILL RESIDE WELL TO
OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. LOCATED ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER
HIGH, 850-300 MB LAYER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE INCREASED TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE, COUPLED
WITH A SUBTLE DECREASING TREND IN 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES, WILL
SECURE A SLIGHT COOLING TREND THIS WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY, THE TAIL END OF A DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE WILL LINGER IN
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE, WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IN SOUTHEAST
KANSAS FRIDAY EVENING, MAY GRADUALLY EDGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT ITS MOVEMENT WILL BE PRIMARILY DICTATED BY THE STRENGTH
AND EXPANSE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS EACH DAY, WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT WITH ANY CERTAINTY. SINCE THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE
GREATEST FOCUS/FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOP EACH DAY, THAT MAKES
THE THE POPS FORECAST CHALLENGING, WHICH IS BACKED UP BY THE VARIOUS
NWP PAINTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ALMOST ANYWHERE IN THE
REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THAT SAID, THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE TENDS
TO FAVOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES FOR STORM CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
PERHAPS EXPANDING SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MINIMAL
TROPOSPHERIC WIND WILL LIMIT OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION AND
INTENSITY, THOUGH A (STILL) HOT AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
SUPPORT LOCALIZED STRONG DOWNBURSTS, WHILE THE WEAK STEERING FLOW
AND IMPROVED MOISTURE LEVELS COULD RESULT IN A FEW SPOTS GETTING A
WELCOME DOWNPOUR.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLEX ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN AND PERHAPS
REORGANIZING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE WEEK. THIS PATTERN
WILL PLACE WEST TEXAS IN A PERIOD OF EASTERLY FLOW, WHILE DECENT
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS NEARBY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF FAIRLY PLEASANT SUMMER WEATHER, WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THAT COULD CHANGE BY LATE
WEEK, BUT UNTIL THEN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S, EXCEPT OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE LOWER 70S WILL MIX IN.
RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BEST
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AS THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO
WASH OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK. IN GENERAL, THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES MAY RESIDE SOUTH OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK, THROUGH THE CENTER PART OF THE STATE, THOUGH
AT LEAST LOW (~20%) STORM CHANCES APPEAR REASONABLE HERE. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BE CARRIED AROUND THE RIDGE
AND APPROACH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY IF IT WERE TO COME TO
FRUITION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR TAFS THRU 18Z/12 WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WIND. ISOLATED TS
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS 20Z-03Z BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TERMINALS. TS CHANCES WILL INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER
18Z/12. JW
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...13
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