377
FXUS64 KLUB 111812
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
112 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS,
THOUGH MANY SPOTS WILL REMAIN DRY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUE ISOLATED STORM CHANCES
EXPECTED SUNDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH LOW (15-30%) THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DAILY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THE UPPER HIGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LEFTOVER
MCV FROM LAST NIGHT'S CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHILE ALSO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. EARLIER THINKING WAS THE REMNANT MCV COULD BE
A FOCUS FOR GENERAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BUT THIS IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY. OVERALL STORM
CHANCES AND CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT IS LOW, BUT BOTH SATELLITE
AND RADAR ARE SHOWING THE FORMERLY STATIONARY FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. MOST MODELS HAVE BEEN
USING THIS AS THE BASIS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.
OVERALL COVERAGE WITHIN THE MODELS IS STILL MEAGER AT BEST GIVEN
THE OVERALL LOW UPPER SUPPORT, BUT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CU
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. GIVEN THIS PLUS GOOD
SURFACE MOISTURE, A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA STARTING AT 00Z. WHILE CHANCES ARE
LOW FOR ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP TO BECOME SEVERE, A FEW COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
BETTER STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION SUNDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER HIGH WILL SETTLE WELL TO OUR NORTH AND PLACE THE REGION UNDER
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. THIS WILL NOT ONLY HELP INCREASE THE OVERALL
CHANCE FOR PRECIP BUT ALSO HELP COOL TEMPS SLIGHTLY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THE MAIN SOURCE FOR SURFACE CONVERGENCE
WILL BE LEFT REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND THE PERSISTENT
STATIONARY FRONT WITH UPPER LIFT COMING FROM WEAKNESSES ROTATING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER HIGH. THE AREAS THAT WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DETERMINED BY WHERE THE BEST
SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THE FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE VERY MUCH SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO KEEP THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS OPPOSED TO FRIDAY'S
RUNS WHICH BROUGHT THE UPPER HIGH BACK TO OUR WEST. IF THIS IS THE
CASE, THEN WE WILL SEE HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK VS HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR 100. DAILY DIURNAL
STORM CHANCES WILL ALSO RESULT FROM THE CURRENT PATTERN. GENERAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED, BUT SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR TAFS THRU 18Z/12 WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WIND. ISOLATED TS
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS 20Z-03Z BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TERMINALS. TS CHANCES WILL INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER
18Z/12. JW
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...13
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