053
FXUS64 KLUB 120339
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1039 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1024 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- WARM SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
A FEW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS, WHERE
MOST ACTIVITY THIS EVENING DEVELOPED ALONG AN LINGERING OUTFLOW
TRACKING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REGION. NOT MUCH HAS HAPPENED WITH
THESE STORMS, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM 0.01" UP TO 0.30"
SO FAR. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CLEAR THE FA BY MIDNIGHT.
THEREAFTER, A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
A TRICKY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS ON TAP FOR THE CAPROCK REGION IN
REGARDS TO SUNDAY, THEREFORE THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
LETS GET INTO THE DETAILS. SUNDAY MORNING, CAMS ARE SIGNALING AT OUR
FIRST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS
AN OUTFLOW FROM A REMNANT STORM SYSTEM IN CENTRAL OK DIVES SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. GIVEN PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE THANKS TO
EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND MID-LEVELS, CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. HEADING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, OUTFLOWS FROM ADDITIONAL STORM SYSTEMS LOOK TO CONVERGE
ACROSS THE LUB FA FROM ALL DIRECTIONS, WITH CAMS PICKING UP ON THIS
IN LATEST RUNS. AS A RESULT OF THIS, WE EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG
ANY AND ALL BOUNDARIES AS THEY TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THIS REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN WE ARE NOT 100% SURE WHEN THESE
BOUNDARIES WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA, IF THEY EVEN DO, AND
WHERE THEY TRACK THROUGH. WHAT WE DO KNOW, DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO
BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 60S WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.5" TO 1.8" ACROSS THE FA.
WHICH IS ABOVE THE REGIONAL 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. KNOWING THIS ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE, ALONG WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION, ANY SOURCE OF
LIFT TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA SHOULD SUFFICE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS, WEAK SHEAR AND POOR MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION. THEREFORE
THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS ON THE LOWER END. HOWEVER, MLCAPE VALUES
AROUND 1500 J/KG COMBINED WITH THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE IS A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. WILL MAINTAIN NBM WIDESPREAD
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THESE POPS MAY HAVE TO BE ALTERED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY OUTFLOWS MOVING THROUGH.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, WE WILL SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS WILL BE IN PART TO
THE DECREASE IN THICKNESS VALUES ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER. THEREFORE, EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 90S AREA-WIDE, ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS MAY SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN FORECASTED.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AREA OF ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE INTO THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACNW. THIS
WILL LEAD TO FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE WHILE SURFACE TROUGHING CONTINUES TO BE
MAINTAINED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW EASTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE DECREASE IN HEIGHTS WITH THE UPPER HIGH PLACED TO OUR NORTH,
ALONG WITH THE DECREASE IN THICKNESS VALUES AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN WILL HELP INFLUENCE DAILY HIGHS THAT
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS, IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. WITH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH THURSDAY LOOKING TO BE THE COOLEST WITH WIDESPREAD
HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN THE 70S AND 80S THANKS TO POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER,
IT IS STILL A BIT TO FAR OUT FOR ANY GUARANTEE. IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS, A LOT OF
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN EASTERLY WAVE FROM THE SECONUS TRACKS IN.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISAGREE ON THE MATTER, WITH THE
GFS BEING THE WETTER OF THE TWO MODELS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HIGH FURTHER TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS THE OUTLIER
DEPICTING A DRIER BIAS WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER HIGH STILL
CLIPPING PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK REGIONS, SUPPRESSING PRECIPITATION
FROM THE AREA. NOW THAT SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING IN,
THE NAM SEEMS TO BE MORE ALIGNED WITH THE GFS WHICH IS A GOOD SIGN
FOR THOSE WHO ARE WANTING TO SEE PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK.
REGARDLESS, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS OUR MOST
SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES WHERE WE EXPECT THE BEST H3 TO H7 MOISTURE,
HIGHER DEWPOINTS, AND OVERALL LIFT TO BE ASSOCIATED. AS A RESULT, WE
WILL MAINTAIN NBM MENTIONABLE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. HOWEVER,
THESE MAY NEED TO BE ALTERED EITHER WAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY CHANGES
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, TSRA IS
POSSIBLE AT/NEAR ANY OF THE TERMINALS FROM 00-03 UTC, WITH THE
BEST CHANCE AT KPVW. KCDS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF TSRA OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. TSRA CHANCES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AT KLBB AND KPVW, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN THE TIMING
AND EXTENT OF THE ACTIVITY TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT SOUTH TO EAST SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ABSENCE OF
T-STORM ACTIVITY.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...33
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