989
FXUS64 KLUB 121757
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1257 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES REMAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING,
THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
NORTHERN ZONES ALONG MULTIPLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHILE PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD.
SO FAR MOST STORMS HAVE REMAINED TAMED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WIND
GUSTS. A LOW END MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS DOES REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION BUT IS MOSTLY FOR ROUGE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WHICH
SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR IN BETWEEN. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS, BUT THE OVERALL FLOODING RISK REMAINS
LOW OUTSIDE OF URBAN STREET FLOODING. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE MOSTLY
TO OUR SOUTH BY THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOLLOWING
OUTFLOW, BUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY OVER THE INNER MOUNTAIN WEST
WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY BEFORE
SETTLING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL PLACE THE FA UNDER EASTERLY SURFACE AND
UPPER FLOW AND BEGIN A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 MONDAY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE EVER PRESENT
STATIONARY FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT, AS WITH TODAY,
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW WITH THE GREATEST RISK BEING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60-70 MPH.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY REMAINS THE SAME WITH THE
UPPER HIGH REMAINING SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH MOSTLY
EASTERLY SURFACE AND UPPER FLOW DOMINATING THE FA. THIS WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE AND ALLOW FOR DAILY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORM CHANCES. MODELS DO REMAIN, HOWEVER, UNSURE OF THE
FUTURE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER HIGH AS WE APPROACH LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. SATURDAY'S RUNS HAD THE UPPER HIGH REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LEAVING LITTLE FORECAST CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY
THROUGH THE WEEK. TODAY'S GFS NOW PUSHES THE UPPER HIGH EASTWARD
OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHILE PUSHING THE BEST
STORM CHANCES WESTWARD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF IS
SIMILAR, BUT ALSO SPLITS THE UPPER HIGH INTO TWO PIECES, ONE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND THE OTHER OVER THE INNER MOUNTAIN WEST AND
WOULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. UNCERTAINTY FOR
THE LATE WEEK FORECAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
VFR REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PRD.
EXPECTING TSRA AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. KCDS HAS ALREADY SEEN -TSRA ON AND OFF THIS MORNING
AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AS STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE NE. AS HEATING INCREASES AND
BOUNDERS MOVE CLOSER TO KPVW/KLBB TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT MORE
LIKELY AFTER 20Z. SE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED 10-15G20KTS AT ALL
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...28
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