286
FXUS64 KLUB 130521
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1221 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- A COOLING TREND BEGINS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS EXPECTED.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO RAPIDLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LINGERING ACROSS OUR
MOST SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES. LUBBOCK COUNTY SEEMED TO BE THE BIG
WINNER WITH SUNDAY EVENING PRECIPITATION WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING
UP TO 2.00" WHILE THE AVERAGE TOTALS WERE AROUND 0.5" TO 1.00".
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, A WEAK LLJ MAY TRY AND DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND IF ANY SHOWERS ARE ABLE TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR GROWTH UPSCALE AND POTENTIALLY TURNING
INTO A MCV. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO REAL GUIDANCE HINTING AT THIS AT
THE MOMENT SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIG "WHAT-IF" AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AREA OF ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DIVES INTO THE PACNW. WHILE THE
CENTER OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. IN RESPONSE, FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO VEER OUT OF THE
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WHILE MINOR PERTURBATIONS TRACK
THROUGH THE FLOW AND CLIPPING PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON.
A SIMILAR SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY AS IT WAS SUNDAY,
WITH INFLUENCE FROM THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH EXPANDING INTO THE
CAPROCK REGIONS ALLOWING FOR THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOISTURE
RETURN AT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN THE
50S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FA. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN LIMITED, DUE TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH
CLIPPING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. GIVEN THIS, LIMITED MOISTURE
WITHIN THE H7 TO H3 LAYER WILL REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS, WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE PLACED
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THIS AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MOST
MODELS BACKING OFF ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMPARED TO WHAT WE SAW
THIS TIME YESTERDAY. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY, MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE
REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA WHICH
SEEMS TO BE REFLECTED BY THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR. ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST WITH A SIMILAR SEVERE THREAT AS TODAY
WITH STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF +50 MPH. STORM MOTIONS
WILL BE SLOW AND GIVEN PWATS WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS LOW-
LYING AREAS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION TO START THE EXTENDED,
WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE PACNW BY MID-WEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO THE CONTINUATION OF EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE AS THE SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS WHILE TROUGHING IS MAINTAINED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO. ALLOWING THE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WINDS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. NOT ONLY
WILL THESE MOIST EASTERLY WINDS PROMOTE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE REGION, BUT THEY WILL WORK WITH THE DAILY DECREASE IN HEIGHTS
AND THICKNESS TO INFLUENCE COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CAPROCK
REGIONS. HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL STANDARDS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE 80S. IN FACT, ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE
IS HINTING AT HIGHS ON THURSDAY BEING THE COOLEST OF THE WEAK WITH
SOME LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 70S. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON PRECIPITATION AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A WARMING
TREND AS A 597 DAM UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY POPS, GIVEN THE EXPECTED POSITIONING OF THE
UPPER HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS AND LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES WHERE WE EXPECT
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE TO RESIDE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW HINTING
AT LATE WEEK BEING THE MAIN SHOW FOR THE BEST WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS AN EASTERLY WAVE TRACKS INTO THE REGION FROM
SECONUS, PUSHING THE UPPER HIGH NORTH. IN RESPONSE, WE WILL LIKELY
SEE MOISTURE TRANSPORT THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE H3 TO H7 LAYER WHILE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
BEGINS TO INCREASE. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN REGARDS TO
THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF THIS GIVEN THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS
OUT.WE WILL MAINTAIN NBM MENTIONABLE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING.
HOWEVER, THESE MAY NEED TO BE ALTERED EITHER WAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
CHANGES IN REGARDS TO THE POSITIONING OF THE EASTERLY WAVE AND UPPER
HIGH. DISCUSSION GOES HERE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. IF ANY ADDITIONAL TS DEVELOP TODAY, THEY
WOULD BE CLOSEST TO LBB, BUT TOO SPOTTY FOR ANY TAF MENTION.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...93
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