882
FXUS64 KLUB 131752
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1252 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1244 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
- THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
MIDDAY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTENSE UPPER HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, BRINGING THEM HOT AND DRY WEATHER. THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD MID-UPPER HIGH WAS CYCLING MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. DESPITE MOIST LOW-LEVEL
AIR HOLDING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION (18Z SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID-60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA ACCORDING TO THE WEST TEXAS
MESONET [WTM]), WATER VAPOR SHOWS MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT INVADING
ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. THE DRY AIR IS CONTINUING TO
ADVANCE SOUTHWESTWARD AND WILL TEND TO LIMIT SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE
FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WAS IN
PLACE DOWNSTATE, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
STRETCHED FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN THROUGH CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. THE
DEEP MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT, BUT DAYTIME HEATING, IN COMBINATION WITH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A DIFFUSE STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT HANGING OUT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA, WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN THE
PICTURE LOCALLY. THE BEST CHANCE (15%-30%) FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES,
WHERE BETTER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE RESIDES. THAT SAID, A FEW
PINPOINT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE.
WHILE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. BAKE, OUR HIGHS
WILL TOP OUT SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE, IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. A MILD NIGHT WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT, WITH ANOTHER PLEASANTLY
"COOL" DAY ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A WEAK
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
TEXAS WILL TRANSLATE THIS WAY. THIS WILL CARRY IN IMPROVED DEEP-
LAYER MOISTURE AND RENEW AT LEAST LOW (15%-25%) POPS, FROM EAST-
TO-WEST, ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
THE MID-UPPER HIGH, AND ITS INTENSE HEAT, WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
WELL TO OUR NORTH, ACROSS THE MIDWEST, THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
AT THE SAME TIME, THE DEEPEST TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL LINGER
FROM DOWNSTATE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH MID-WEEK. EVEN SO, WE
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BETTER MOISTURE TO KEEP AT LEAST LOW
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FAVORING OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT, A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING AROUND
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
EAST LATE WEEK. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE MOIST MID-UPPER LEVEL AIR
DOWNSTATE WILL BE DRAWN BACK INTO WEST TEXAS, LEADING TO HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES/COVERAGE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, INSTABILITY AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE, WHICH WILL
CURTAIL OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. HOWEVER, THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH PERHAPS
A HYBRID DOWNBURST OR TWO. THE WEAKNESS ALOFT AND MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IS PROGGED TO LINGER IN THE REGION THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO OUR WEST IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS, RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE SUPPRESSED.
THEREAFTER, HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE
BUILDING RIDGE EXERTS GREATER INFLUENCE LOCALLY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
VFR REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PRD. WIND
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND FROM THE E/SE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...28
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