123
FXUS64 KLUB 140510
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1210 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1209 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, BEFORE
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BEGINS THIS WEEKEND.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS LOW, WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ENTRENCHED BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH PLACED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
ADDITIONALLY, WE ARE ABLE TO SEE DRIER AIR BEING TRANSPORTED INTO
AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK FROM THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WHICH HAS
CONTINUED TO AID IN THE DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE FA THIS EVENING AND LIKELY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
BETTER BULK OF MOISTURE PLACED SOUTH, ACROSS MAF AND SJT'S AREA.
THEREFORE, WE EXPECT A QUIET OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CAPROCK REGIONS
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS.
TUESDAY WILL START WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINNING TO BE PUSHED
NORTHWARD AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WOBBLES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS WILL BE IN PART TO AN EASTERLY WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVING INTO
PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATX REGIONS FROM THE SECONUS. WV IMAGERY THIS
EVENING SHOWS A TONGUE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCES
ATTEMPTING TO CLIP PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS, WHICH IF THIS
COMES TO FRUITION WITH WESTERLY EXTENT OF THE DISTURBANCE. WE COULD
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED, AS THE FA STILL REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE, SUPPRESSING THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION THREAT.
HOWEVER, MINOR PERTURBATIONS WRAPPING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH LINGERING OUTFLOWS TRACKING INTO THE REGION FROM ACTIVITY TO
OUR SOUTH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR INITIATION ACROSS OUR AREA.
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT REMAINING LOW GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND MLLR. HOWEVER,
MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1700 J/KG ALONG WITH INVERTED-V PROFILES ON
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE IS A THREAT FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND GIVEN PWATS
WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS LOW-LYING AREAS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH NOT MUCH OF A
CHANGE TO REPORT IN THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND AREA OF ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS A RESULT OF A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE
TRANSLATING SOUTH OF THE UPPER HIGH INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
TEXAS REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT "COOLER" TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO
WHAT WE SAW LAST WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FORECASTED IN THE UPPER
70S AND 80S AREA-WIDE THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL ALSO REMAIN IN TACT, PRIMARILY FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE H3 TO H7 LAYER WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW. COVERAGE
LOOKS TO INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE PLUME OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORTS FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO THE FA AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY. GIVEN THIS, NBM WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
SEEM WARRANTED ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS, STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND POOR
LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER, MODEST MLCAPE VALUES ALONG WITH THE NOTABLE
DRY-SUB CLOUD LAYER SUGGEST A FEW STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF A
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. AS WELL A THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS LOW-LYING AREAS GIVEN WEAK STORM MOTIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL PWATS/TDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WE WILL
BEGIN TO SEE A WARMER AND DRIER REGIME BEGIN TO SET UP ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND INFLUENCES HIGHER THICKNESS AND HEIGHT VALUES
ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
VFR WITH VERY SLIM CHANCES FOR ANY TS NEAR THE TERMINALS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...93
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