430
FXUS64 KLUB 141750
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1250 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK,
BEFORE GRADUALLY MODERATING THIS WEEKEND.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY.
- THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES/COVERAGE AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
TODAY'S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOESN'T LOOK MUCH DIFFERENT THAN 24
HOURS AGO, WITH WEST TEXAS POSITIONED BETWEEN A STRONG UPPER HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION (AND THE INTENSE HEAT IT'S
SUPPLYING THERE) AND SEVERAL WEAKNESSES AND TROPICAL-LEVEL MOISTURE
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS (WHERE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOODING ARE OCCURRING) INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE ONE NOTABLE
DIFFERENCE IN WATER VAPOR IS THAT MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS HAS FULLY OVERSPREAD THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. THE DRYING ALOFT SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THE REST OF TODAY INTO TOMORROW LOCALLY, BUT LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (SURFACE DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 60S) AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL STILL DRIVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FAVORING THE ROLLING PLAINS.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THE GREATEST IMPACT WITH ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION WILL BE BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL FADE OVERNIGHT, THOUGH A ROGUE SHOWER
ISN'T OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MORE
OF THE SAME AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS SLOW TO EVOLVE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE WITH
AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF CONVECTION, FAVORING THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE
MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS AND RICH TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE ARE PROGGED TO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD FROM DOWNSTATE. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE RISK FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE RAIN (AND POSSIBLE FLOODING) WILL
INCREASE. DETAILS WILL HAVE TO BE IRONED OUT AS THIS IS STILL A
COUPLE/FEW DAYS OUT, BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL TARGET THE SOUTHERN AND/OR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES ON
THURSDAY, EXPANDING WESTWARD TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY.
WHERE THE CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP, WEAK STEERING FLOW AND A
NEARLY SATURATED TROPOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT SLOW-MOVING AND
EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FLOODING RISK.
THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE, COUPLED WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY TO RESIDE PRIMARILY IN THE 80S, WITH UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S WHERE THE CLOUDS/RAIN ARE MOST PERSISTENT. THEREAFTER,
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THIS WEEKEND, POSSIBLY EXPANDING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE WEAKNESS ALOFT AND HIGH-PWAT
AIR WILL GRADUALLY ABATE AND SHIFT WESTWARD. RAIN CHANCES WILL
FOLLOW SUIT, SHIFTING WESTWARD AND DECREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
LIKELY DRYING OUT COMPLETELY BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY. IN CONCERT WITH
THE DRYING, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO OR ABOVE AVERAGE BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD. A LOW
CLOUD LAYER HAS FILLED IN OVER ALL THREE TAF SITES, HOWEVER WILL
NOT FILL IN ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE CEILING CONDITIONS. BREEZY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. BY
THIS EVENING, WIND SPEEDS WILL CALM DOWN AND WIND DIRECTION WILL
VARY FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FOG
AT OR NEAR KPVW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AT THE MOMENT, THEREFORE LEFT OUT OF TAF. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ALL THREE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER, THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN
LOCATION AND COVERAGE. HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF AT THE MOMENT, HOWEVER
COULD SEE AN UPDATE SOON.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...10
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