628
FXUS64 KLUB 150450
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT TUE JUL14 2026
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK, BEFORE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH GREATEST RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT TUE JUL14 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TONIGHT CONTINUES TO PORTRAY THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN VERY WELL, WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH
WHILE AN MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP OVER THE ARKLATX REGION. AS
A RESULT, NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LUB FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. GIVEN THE CURRENT POSITIONING OF THE EASTERLY
WAVE IS DISPLACED TOO FAR EAST, WE ARE SEEING A SIMILAR PATTERN TO
WHAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR PUNCHING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO EXPAND. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
CONTINUED DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, A SMALL TONGUE OF MOISTURE ATTEMPTING TO WRAP
AROUND THE EASTERLY WAVE DISPLAYED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL TRY TO
CREEP INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THIS, WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO POPPING UP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. WEDNESDAY WE WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN PLACE WITH THE CONTINUATION OF
DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION, WHILE THE LOW SPIRALS SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL TEXAS REGION, WHICH WILL WORK TO LIMIT THE
OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS, MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH DEWPOINTS PROGGED ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL STANDARDS IN THE 50S AND 60S COMBINED WITH PWATS UP
TO AN INCH ON THE CAPROCK AND UP TO 2" OFF THE CAPROCK. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE WEAK, ALTHOUGH ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MARCHING
THROUGH THE AREA COMBINED WITH THE MINOR PERTURBATIONS TRACKING
THROUGH THE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY. PRIMARILY OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW WEDNESDAY WITH THE PRIMARY
HAZARD BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS LOW-LYING AREAS. ALTHOUGH THE
THREAT IS LOW, MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J/KG ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUST UP TO 55 MPH CANNOT BE RULED
OUT WITH STRONGER STORM CORES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
MAIN THEME OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY LATE THIS WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE CENTER OF LOW
SETTING UP OVER THE BIG COUNTRY. IN RESPONSE WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
FLOW ALOFT VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, ALLOWING TROPICAL MOISTURE
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE AREA TO BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION
AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE CENTER OF THE LOW. AS MOISTURE THROUGH THE H3
TO H7 LAYER OVERSPREADS THE REGION WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASE ACROSS BOTH CAPROCK REGIONS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. NOT ONLY WILL THIS SUPPORT HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES, BUT WE
WILL SEE THE RETURN OF EVEN "COOLER" TEMPERATURES THANKS TO
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE 70S ACROSS THE CAPROCK AND INTO THE
80S FOR AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DEPENDING
WHERE RAINFALL IS ABLE TO PERSIST THE LONGEST, THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT SOME LOCATIONS ARE ABLE TO SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
SLIGHTLY IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
REGARDS TO STORM INTENSITY. WEAK SHEAR WILL WORK TO LIMIT STORM
ORGANIZATION, THOUGH MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS MAY SUPPORT A
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUST AT TIMES. THE PRIMARY HAZARD,
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS, WILL BE THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTED A DEEPLY
SATURATED COLUMN OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW. SLOW
STORM MOTIONS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT THE
THREAT FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD ACROSS LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS, THE BULK OF MOISTURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR WEST
LEADING TO A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION.
THEREAFTER, AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES INCREASE, EXPECT A
WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN TO DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS. THE NEXT WINDOW FOR SHRA AND TS SHOULD OPEN LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF THURSDAY.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...93
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