429
FXUS64 KLUB 250515
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1215 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
- NOT AS HOT SATURDAY AFTER SOME STRAY MORNING SHOWERS.
- DRY AND HOTTER NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT ADVISORIES LIKELY OFF THE
CAPROCK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
SCATTERED STORMS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING WERE SADLY FALLING BY THE
WAYSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING, AND OTHER THAN A FEW STORMS NEAR
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THE NIGHT IS LOOKING
QUIET. THIS SHOULD CHANGE TOWARD DAWN AS A 30 KNOT SW LLJ IMPINGES
ON AN ELEVATED THERMAL GRADIENT RUNNING SW-NE. THIS SAME SETUP
ONLY RESULTED IN A COUPLE BANDS OF ALTOCUMULUS FRIDAY MORNING
OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS, BUT IMPROVED MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT THIS
TIME AROUND SHOULD YIELD SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS OR BRIEF STORMS
UNTIL THE LLJ FADES BY 9 AM OR SO. EARLIER HIGH RES MODELS WERE
CLUSTERING THIS LIGHT PRECIP GENERALLY FROM NEAR LUBBOCK TO
CHILDRESS, SO ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ADDED FOR THIS CORRIDOR. WITH
CLEARING SKIES THEREAFTER, HIGHS WILL WARM NICELY BUT STILL FALL A
COUPLE DEGREES SHORT OF FRIDAY'S WIDESPREAD 100 TO 103 READINGS
THANKS TO "COOLER" EASTERLIES FROM 700-600 MB. WITH NO SURFACE
TROUGH AVAILABLE AND DRYING OF THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BAND, IT'S
LOOKING TOUGHER FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SO
NBM'S QUIET POPS LOOK GOOD. SATURDAY NIGHT IS SETTING UP ON THE
COOLER SIDE THANKS TO DEWPOINTS STAYING IN THE 50S UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER REMAIN WITH US THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
HIGH MEANDERS BETWEEN SOUTHERN COLORADO, THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, AND
NEW MEXICO WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES IN ITS INTENSITY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER HIGH AND DRY WITH HIGH TEMPS OFF THE CAPROCK LIKELY
REACHING HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK. NOT UNTIL FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND DOES THE UPPER HIGH
RETREAT WELL TO OUR WEST ALLOWING LOWER TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
ISOLATED -SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR ALL TAF SITES, WITH ANY ACTIVITY DISSIPATING
NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE. VFR WILL PREVAIL OTHERWISE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...30
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