466
FXUS64 KLUB 252245
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
545 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
- STILL HOT THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE.
- DRY AND HOTTER NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT ADVISORIES LIKELY OFF THE
CAPROCK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
CHANCES OF STORMS ARE MUCH LOWER TODAY GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE THAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED THE PAST SEVERAL AFTERNOONS. THE
BEST CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE A MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS OVERHEAD. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LOW LEVEL THETA-
E RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL. A DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STILL YIELD AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO INTITATE STORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. CAM GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON DEVELOPING VERY
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THIS REGION SO WE HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE AN
ISOLATED MENTION OF STORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY, THE MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SHUNTED WEST OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAKES A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT PUTTING AN END TO OUR
DAILY CONVECTIVE CHANCES. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT
MORE OFF THE CAPROCK EASING THE PROBABILITY FOR A HEAT ADVISORY ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF JULY. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN AROUND
THE QUINTUPLE STATE REGION OF KANSAS, OKLAHOMA, TEXAS, NEW MEXICO,
AND COLORADO THROUGH MID-WEEK THEN MIGRATE MORE WESTWARD TOWARDS THE
FOUR CORNERS. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH LOWER 100S AREA WIDE THROUGH THE WEEK LIKELY RESULTING IN HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS THE RIDGE TRENDS MORE WESTWARD, CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION MAY BE INTRODUCED NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
CONTINUED VFR WITH MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS, OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ025-026-031-032.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...93
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page