193
FXUS64 KLUB 281736
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO MID 100S CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT COOLING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
- ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THU-SAT, AND ANY STORMS THAT DO
FORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. EARLY THIS
MORNING, A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE LED TO ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS, MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SIMILAR EVOLUTION APPEARS LIKELY
TONIGHT, AND A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD SPILL AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE FAR SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. CAMS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY BULLISH,
HOWEVER, WITH MODEL BLENDS KEEPING POPS LESS THAN 10% AT ANY ONE
LOCATION.
THE HOT CONDITIONS PERSIST, WITH HIGH TEMPS ON WED RANGING FROM
NEAR 100 ON THE CAPROCK TO 100-105 OFF THE CAPROCK. BOTH THE NBM
AND THE HREF PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 105 ON WED ARE HIGHEST
(50-70%) ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS WEST AND
STRENGTHENS, BECOMING CENTERED OVER AZ BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN'T BE RULED OUT THURS NIGHT, BUT
CHANCES ARE PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE, A
POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO A SFC LOW OVER
THE MIDWEST PUSHING A FRONT SOUTHWARD, WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
THIS FRONT REACHES OUR CWA SOMETIME ON FRI. THIS FRONT WILL OFFER
AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE (20%) OF STORMS FRI PM, FOLLOWED BY A 'COOL
DOWN' OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGHS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S. PRIOR
TO THIS FRONT'S ARRIVAL, HIGH TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 100-105 RANGE
OFF THE CAPROCK. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP
ADDITIONAL LOW PRECIP CHANCES (15-20%) IN THE FORECAST SAT,
PRIMARILY FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A
DEEP, WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, SO ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL
BE CAPABLE OF SPORADIC GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD,
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE RIDGE SHIFTS BACK EAST, ONCE AGAIN BECOMING
CENTERED OVER EASTERN NM/WESTERN TX, IN A SIMILAR POSITION TO
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. THIS SUGGESTS A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND
MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
VFR WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES. CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ024>026-031-032-
037-038-043-044.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...01
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