625
FXUS64 KLUB 061841
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
141 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 140 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
HOT, BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE BROAD AND ELONGATED UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND IS KEEPING UPPER FLOW WEAK AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE
NORTH. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AS SHOWN ON VIS. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. THERE IS A
SLIM CHANCE FOR STORMS TO CROSS THE STATE LINE LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
THEY FULLY DISSIPATE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAR TO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY
MENTIONABLE POPS. THERE IS CURRENTLY A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM
COLORADO INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THEN NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY THROUGH
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
FRONT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAKNESS ROTATES AROUND THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS, BUT HOW
FAR SOUTHWARD THEY CAN PROPAGATE BEFORE BEING LEFT BEHIND BY OUTFLOW
IS UNCERTAIN. SOME MODELS HINT AT STORMS MAKING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS
LUBBOCK BEFORE DISSIPATING WHILE OTHERS DON'T HAVE THE STORMS MOVING
OUT OF THE PANHANDLE. GIVEN FAIRLY WEAK UPPER FLOW, IT IS EXPECTED
THAT STORMS WILL, AT BEST, ONLY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD BY LATE WEEK.
WHILE THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS MOST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL,
THERE WILL STILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON ISOLATED STORMS,
ESPECIALLY AS A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOST IF NOT ALL FRONTS ARE PROGGED
TO AT BEST ONLY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, BUT A
FEW STORMS COULD STILL FORM FROM REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. OVERALL
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FAIRLY STEADY IN THE MID/UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW 100S
OFF THE CAPROCK THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODERATELY BREEZY SSW
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BACK TO SSE OVERNIGHT.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...24
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