358
FXUS64 KLUB 071725
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1225 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
- INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FIRING OVER THE RATON MESA INTO SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS THIS EVENING AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. MODEST WINDS AT 850MB WILL ALLOW THIS CONVECTION TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS UNLIKELY TO
REACH THE FA, SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY REMAIN EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SEVERAL CAMS DEPICT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE FORCING
FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT CLEAR AT THE MOMENT BUT COULD BE FROM
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. WEAK FLOW
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL KEEP STORMS PULSY THAT DO
DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY, A HOT AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO
HIGH CLOUD BASES WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO CONVECTION OFF OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY
DECREASING CHANCES OF THIS CONVECTION MAKING IT INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
FRIDAY MAY BE THE ONLY MEANINGFUL CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US POTENTIALLY
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE MIDDLE TO LATE
NEXT WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY, THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE WILL NOT BRING
ANY RELIEF IN TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF NEAR AVERAGE
TO FIVE DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
VFR AND MAINLY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR TS EXISTS AT ALL TAF
SITES BEGINNING AROUND 23Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AND PRECISE TIMING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THUNDER MENTION IN THE
TAF AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, BE AWARE THAT GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW AND
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF ANY TS
ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...30
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