510
FXUS64 KLUB 071810
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
110 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
- INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
A MCV CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS OF 1 PM.
OTHER THAN AN IMPRESSIVE DISPLAY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE, THE MCV IS
BENIGN WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIP BEING PRODUCED. MANY MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER
THIS EVENING. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHILE ONLY SOME CAMS ARE IN AGREEMENT. OF
THE MODELS THAT SHOW CONVECTION, MOST KEEP CONVECTION MOSTLY TO
OUR NORTH WITH STORMS BEING OUTRUN BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GUST FRONTS
BY THE TIME STORMS MAKE IT CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
ONLY A CAM OR TWO ALONG WITH THE GFS BRING CONVECTION FURTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. GIVEN WEAK STEERING FLOW, A
DRIER FORECAST IS FAVORED, BUT SOME LOW END POPS HAVE BEEN
RETAINED AS IT WILL NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR CONVECTION TO PUSH AS
FAR SOUTH AS OUR NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES. WHILE THE SEVERE
THREAT IS LOW, ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD PRODUCE WINDS UP TO
70 MPH. THE UPPER HIGH WILL FLATTEN AND EXPAND SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
SATURDAY AND WILL HELP TO FURTHER INHIBIT RAIN CHANCES AND KEEP
ANY COLD FRONTS WELL TO OUR NORTH.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH LATE WEEK
AND EVENTUALLY SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP
MOST RAIN CHANCES AT BAY ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVER THE
SOUTH PLAINS REGION. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP DAILY HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 90S/LOW 100S. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL WORK BACK INTO THE FA
AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, BUT THIS WILL
BE MOSTLY BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
VFR AND MAINLY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR TS EXISTS AT ALL TAF
SITES BEGINNING AROUND 23Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AND PRECISE TIMING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THUNDER MENTION IN THE
TAF AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, BE AWARE THAT GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW AND
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF ANY TS
ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...30
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