150
FXUS64 KLUB 072314
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
614 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
- INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
A MCV CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS OF 1 PM.
OTHER THAN AN IMPRESSIVE DISPLAY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE, THE MCV IS
BENIGN WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIP BEING PRODUCED. MANY MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER
THIS EVENING. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHILE ONLY SOME CAMS ARE IN AGREEMENT. OF
THE MODELS THAT SHOW CONVECTION, MOST KEEP CONVECTION MOSTLY TO
OUR NORTH WITH STORMS BEING OUTRUN BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GUST FRONTS
BY THE TIME STORMS MAKE IT CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
ONLY A CAM OR TWO ALONG WITH THE GFS BRING CONVECTION FURTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. GIVEN WEAK STEERING FLOW, A
DRIER FORECAST IS FAVORED, BUT SOME LOW END POPS HAVE BEEN
RETAINED AS IT WILL NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR CONVECTION TO PUSH AS
FAR SOUTH AS OUR NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES. WHILE THE SEVERE
THREAT IS LOW, ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD PRODUCE WINDS UP TO
70 MPH. THE UPPER HIGH WILL FLATTEN AND EXPAND SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
SATURDAY AND WILL HELP TO FURTHER INHIBIT RAIN CHANCES AND KEEP
ANY COLD FRONTS WELL TO OUR NORTH.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH LATE WEEK
AND EVENTUALLY SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP
MOST RAIN CHANCES AT BAY ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVER THE
SOUTH PLAINS REGION. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP DAILY HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 90S/LOW 100S. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL WORK BACK INTO THE FA
AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, BUT THIS WILL
BE MOSTLY BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
A FEW OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE HINTING AT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS FAR, REALITY HAS BEEN UNDERWHELMING AND
WHILE A STORM THREAT DOES EXIST AT KLBB/KPVW/KCDS, THE
PROBABILITY AND CONFIDENCE IS MUCH TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF
AT THIS TIME. THE BEST WINDOW FOR STORMS IS LIKELY IN THE 02Z TO
05Z RANGE. OTHERWISE, VFR TO PERSIST OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. STRONG DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WILL EXIST UNDER STORMS AND
VIRGA.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...26
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