802
FXUS64 KLUB 090507
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1207 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
- CONTINUED HOT AND DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
- SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES LATE
WEEK
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER OUR PART OF THE STATE ON
SUNDAY WITH A WEAKNESS EXTENDING FROM MO INTO SE TX AND THAT WILL BE
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL ALONG WITH POINTS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE CWFA THANKS TO RESIDUAL MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. HERE IN NORTHWEST TEXAS, DRY
AND HOT WILL PREVAIL. HIGHS WILL STILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THOUGH BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. INCIDENTALLY,
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO OVERPERFORM A FEW DEGREES ON THE MXT VALUES,
SO THERE'S THAT TOO.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED ON
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE MORPHOLOGY/POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH LARGELY STATIC. WHILE THERE REMAINS SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY WITH REGARDS TO THE WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST, THINGS DO NOT LOOK GOOD FOR MUCH OF CHANGE OF
WEATHER UNTIL PERHAPS LATE WEEK WHERE POPS MAY EDGE UP GIVEN THE
SHIFTING OF THE HIGH TOWARD THE EAST (YIELDING AT LEAST SOME MONSOON
POTENTIAL) AS A TROUGH COMES ASHORE THE WEST COAST.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WE'VE JUST STARTED DOWNWARD ON THE MEAN HIGH
TEMPERATURE VALUES BASED ON SEASONAL AVERAGES. DOES THIS MEAN THE
HEAT IS ON ITS WAY DOWN FOR GOOD? NO, NOT AT ALL. WE CAN STILL GET
100+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO SEPTEMBER, BUT AT LEAST IT'S THE
FIRST STEPS TOWARD AUTUMN. THE MJO JUST HAD A BRIEF TRANSIT THROUGH
PHASE 5 WHICH COULD SUGGEST SOME SORT OF FRONT AROUND THE 25TH OF
AUGUST. IT WAS A RATHER WEAK TRANSIT ACTUALLY QUICKLY SHUNTING FROM
PHASE 2 TO PHASE 5 (BOTH TENDING TO SUGGEST FRONTS ABOUT 21 DAYS
OUT) OVER THE COURSE OF A COUPLE DAYS, BUT IF YOU'RE LOOKING FOR
SOME HOPE, THERE IT IS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
NO WEATHER IMPACTS TO AVIATION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...93
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