222
FXUS64 KLUB 100306
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1006 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 959 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
- CONTINUED HOT AND DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
THIS EVENING'S DATA SHOWS A MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS (TO OUR EAST)
IN THE SOUTHERN CONUS FLATTENED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAN
YESTERDAY. IN FACT, THERE LOOKS TO BE A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WHICH
DEVELOPS OFF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND STARTS WORKS ITS WAY
INLAND MONDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE DFW METROPLEX. WITH THE H5 594
CONTOUR OVERHEAD, IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY
SO. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO
THE 102-104 RANGE OUT EAST. AND, OF COURSE, NO PRECIPITATION OF
ANY CONSEQUENCE IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
ON TUESDAY, WE START TO SEE A SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS
THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST. BY LATE WEEK, FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY AND SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
NOT-SO-STRAIGHFORWARD EVOLUTION. AT LEAST SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS
HITTING AT BOTH INCREASED MONSOON FLOW WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH'S
INFLUENCE, BUT ALSO ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE APPEARS TO PERHAPS
APPROACH THE NORTHERN MEXICAN COASTLINE WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
BEING SHUNTED OUR WAY. THIS WILL BE AN INTERESTING SETUP TO WATCH.
I WOULDN'T WANT TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THESE PROSPECTS JUST NOW
AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH WEAKLY FORCED SYSTEMS. IT IS LIKELY MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER, THE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL DO
INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES (A FEW
DEGREES) POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...01
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