256
FXUS64 KLUB 112300
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
600 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 557 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVEL EXPECTED
EVERYDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SLIGHT CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING.
- BETTER STORM CHANCES EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN CONUS. THICKNESS INCREASES DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGING WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES HOT AND CONDITIONS DRY TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLIGHTLY INCREASE TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, HOWEVER ONLY BY A
DEGREE OR TWO. HIGHS ON THE CAPROCK REMAIN FORECASTED IN THE UPPER
90S. OFF THE CAPROCK IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 100 TO 102, JUST
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY TEMPERATURES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS CO AND
NORTHERN NM TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
TRANSITIONS TO A CLOSED LOW. OVERNIGHT WILL BE QUIET WITH SEASONABLY
WARM LOWS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS.
IF YOU GUESSED WEDNESDAY WOULD BE HOT AGAIN, THEN YOU WILL BE
CORRECT WITH IT LOOKING TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY THIS WEEK. THE
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY,
HOWEVER IT WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES
DOWN THE WESTERN COAST. THICKNESS INCREASES DUE TO THE REGION WILL
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN CO TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BRINGING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AGAIN. WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH EXPANDS
ACROSS NM. SLIGHT CONVERGENCE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SECONDARY
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED
STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND PUSH
NORTHEAST. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.25" TO
1.5", HOWEVER NOT MUCH IN TERMS OF FORCING. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO
FORM, WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J/KG, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER UNLIKELY. WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS, STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED THEREFORE, CAN EXPECT BREEZY WINDS AND
OUTFLOWS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH MODELS
INDICATING STORMS DEVELOP JUST BEFORE SUNSET, HOWEVER CLEAR OUT JUST
AFTER SUNSET.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
TEMPERATURES REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE LONG TERM, HOWEVER, WE WILL SEE
A SLIGHT "COOLING" TREND BEGINNING THURSDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH
MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ACROSS WESTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE UPPER RIDGING
FARTHER EAST WITH THE WESTERN EDGE SITTING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES ON THE CAPROCK WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 90S.
SADLY, TRIPLE TEMPERATURE HIGHS REMAIN FORECASTED OFF THE CAPROCK.
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EVERYDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER PATTERN DOESN'T SEEM TO CHANGE. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL
REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH
DEAMPLIFIES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER RIDGING TO RETREAT BACK TO
THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A PASSING SHORTWAVE ON THURSDAY AND
ANOTHER ONE ON FRIDAY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.
OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK TO
BE DRY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL, ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY
AROUND 10-15 KTS. GUSTS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 25 KTS WED AFTERNOON.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...24
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