061
FXUS64 KLUB 191719
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1219 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1218 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
- NO TRUE RELIEF ANYTIME SOON FROM THE PROLONGED HEAT WAVE.
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND THURSDAY
IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
HOT TEMPERATURES WERE WELL UNDERWAY THIS HOUR AND WERE WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF YESTERDAY'S READINGS AS OF NOON. SOME COMFORT IN
THE FORM OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOOMING JUST NORTH OF FRIONA
AND DIMMITT COMPLETE WITH A FEW SHOWERS. AS THIS BOUNDARY STALLS
NEARBY THIS AFTERNOON, THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. DESPITE UPDRAFT CAPES OF
500 J/KG OR LESS, DOWNDRAFT CAPES ARE HEALTHY IN THIS DEEPLY-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE TUNE OF 1500-2000 J/KG, SO MICROBURSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BEFORE CONVECTION FALTERS TONIGHT. THERE IS AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR COOLER OUTFLOW FROM ANY STORMS THIS EVENING TO
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CAPROCK WHICH COULD GARNER LOWER MIN
TEMPS, BUT THIS WILL HINGE ON THE COVERAGE AND DURATION OF STORMS
FARTHER NORTHWEST.
WITH THE UPPER HIGH PARKED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THURSDAY,
OUR AREA WILL SEE ANOTHER WINDOW OPEN FOR LATE DAY AND EVENING
STORMS UNDER WEAKLY UNSETTLED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE LINGERING
FRONT AND/OR ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW OVERNIGHT SHOULD SET UP ANOTHER
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY FAVORS 20-30 POPS BY THURSDAY EVENING,
PERHAPS A BIT EARLIER. ADVISORY-LEVEL TEMPS WILL AGAIN TARGET
MOST AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
OUR LATE-SUMMER HEAT WAVE AND WORSENING DROUGHT HOLD TIGHT OVER WEST
TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER HIGH MEANDERS NEARBY.
BY THIS WEEKEND, THE HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
AND BRINGS WITH IT A BOUT OF EVEN HOTTER TEMPS, ALTHOUGH THIS IS
NOT REFLECTED WELL BY THE NBM WHICH HAS BEEN UNDERPERFORMING IN
THE HIGH TEMP DEPARTMENT FOR A COUPLE DAYS NOW. HIGH TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY SHOW A 40-50% CHANCE OF REACHING EXTREME HEAT TERRITORY
(110+) BEFORE DIALING LOWER THEREAFTER AS THE UPPER HIGH RETREATS
TO OUR WEST. FOR ANYONE ANNOYED WITH THIS PATTERN, LONG-RANGE
ENSEMBLES SHOW NO MEANINGFUL CHANGE UNTIL THE SECOND WEEK OF
SEPTEMBER AT THE EARLIEST. INTERESTINGLY, THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH
OUR LOCAL AREA CLIMATOLOGY WHICH TYPICALLY FAVORS OUR FIRST PROPER
COLD FRONT BY EARLY/MID SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
CONTINUED VFR WITH NO IMPACTFUL WINDS. A FEW TS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING WELL NW OF PVW WITH LITTLE CHANCE THAT THESE REACH THE
TERMINAL.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ024>026-030>032-
036>038-042>044.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93
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