046
FXUS64 KLUB 201029
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
529 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 528 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
- HEAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY HELD UP OVER THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE
WITH LITTLE TO NO FORWARD MOVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. AT BEST WE COULD SEE THE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN
ROWS BUT WILL DO LITTLE GOOD IN RELATION TO COOLING TEMPS OR
PRODUCING RAINFALL. THE FRONT COULD PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO
THE FA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD AIDE IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STORMS WOULD BE ISOLATED AT
BEST AND SHORT LIVED. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS LOW, BUT A
STORM OR TWO COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. ANY
EVENING STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH SURFACE FLOW
BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AREA WIDE THE REST OF EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY
LEVEL ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS, THEREFORE A NEW HEAT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEARLY OVERHEAD BY
SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW
TEMPS TO INCREASE HIGHER THAN WHAT THE NBM IS FORECASTING AND REACH
INTO HEAT WARNING LEVEL BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE ONE POSSIBLE
RELIEF THIS WEEKEND IS THE PROSPECT FOR UNORGANIZED ISOLATED
CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY A WEAKNESS ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH. MOST
MODELS ARE IN ARE IN SOMEWHAT AGREEMENT WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND, THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE GFS GIVES
THE MOST DESPAIR AND KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH OVERHEAD THROUGH ALL OF
NEXT WEEK THUS CONTINUING HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE FORGIVING AND BRINGS THE UPPER HIGH BACK
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND PLACES THE FA UNDER FAVORABLE
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ALONG WITH A FROPA BY LATE WEEK WHICH, IF IT
ACTUALLY HAPPENS, WOULD BE A GOOD RAIN PRODUCER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE, WITH WSW WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING
SOUTHERLY BY MIDDAY. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER THIS
MORNING. AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING, BUT THE
CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW (10%) TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ024>026-030>032-036>038-042>044.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...24
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