796
FXUS64 KLUB 221716
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1216 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF I-27.
- UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
- STRONGER BREEZES COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS MAINLY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION TODAY, WITH AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL MOISTURE ALSO
NOTED AS EVIDENCED BY SCATTERED MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN VICINITY
OF THE RED RIVER. A DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS ALSO IN PLACE
ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR AMARILLO TOWARDS CHILDRESS, AND THIS
TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER
ABOUT 3 PM. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL BE
HIGHER TODAY THAN WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY, GIVEN THE MORE PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALOFT ALONG WITH LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT OF A FEW
MODEST SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AND SOME JET-LEVEL DIFLUENCE VISIBLE
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. AFTER INITIALLY
DEVELOPING OVER THE SE TX PANHANDLE, SCATTERED OUTFLOW-PROPAGATING
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALTHOUGH REFS/HREF PROBS GENERALLY KEEP
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES TO THE EAST OF I-27. A COUPLE OF SEVERE
STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TODAY, GIVEN VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SLIGHTLY IMPROVED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COMPARED TO DAYS
PAST. VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY, AS WELL AS BRIEF DOWNPOURS.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES, MOST AREAS EAST OF I-27 WILL EXCEED 105
DEGREES BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGING ALOFT
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD, WITH HIGHS NEAR 110 EXPECTED OVER THE SE TX
PANHANDLE. AS SUCH, HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ROUGHLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. STORM CHANCES TREND MUCH LOWER FOR SUNDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH
PUSHES OUR PLUME OF MOISTURE MAINLY TO OUR EAST, ALTHOUGH A STRAY
STORM OR TWO MAY STILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
MONDAY IS STILL ON TRACK TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
AS THE CORE OF THE ~596DAM H5 RIDGE CENTERS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. HIGHS
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 105 DEGREES ARE LIKELY ON THE CAPROCK, WITH
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH AS HIGH AS 113 DEGREES OVER
THE SE TX PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
A BIT FASTER WITH THE SOUTHWARD RETREAT OF THE UPPER HIGH MONDAY
EVENING, WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW LATE
EVENING STORMS TO THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE, ALTHOUGH A DRY FORECAST
IS FAVORED AT THE MOMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK, BUT WILL BE A BIT COOLER COMPARED TO THE
INTENSE HEAT OF EARLY WEEK. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BOTH
FAVOR A SUPPRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE FARTHER TO OUR SOUTHWEST
MIDWEEK AND BEYOND, WITH THE RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RESULTING IN A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR DAILY EVENING STORM CHANCES
DURING THE TUE-FRI TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER, IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY
WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE WHETHER ANY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH
THIS PATTERN SHIFT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. CHECK DENSITY
ALTITUDE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z
AT ALL TERMINALS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
STORMS AND A MENTION WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THIS TAF CYCLE, WITH THE
TAF AMENDED AS NEEDED.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ024>026-030>032-
035>038-041>044.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...51
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