256
FXUS64 KLUB 231115
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
615 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 614 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
- RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- STRONGER BREEZES AND LOW RH VALUES WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- STORM CHANCES RETURN EACH DAY NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CURRENT
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE OUTFLOW THAT PUSHED SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HAS MOSTLY EXITED THE REGION. ONCE
THE SHOWERS CLEAR AND THE OUTFLOW EXITS TO FORECAST AREA, THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE QUIET. LIGHT WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY WARM IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION. SOME LOCALIZED AREAS
MAY ONLY REACH AS LOW AS THE LOWER 80S. SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT
ONE. ON THE UPPER LEVELS, RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES EASTERN CONUS. A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH
WILL SWING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THICKNESS INCREASES
BELOW THE THE RIDGING WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES
COMPARED TO TODAY. TEMPERATURES ON THE CAPROCK WILL REACH UP TO 106
DEGREES. TEMPERATURES OFF THE CAPROCK WILL RANGE FROM 106 UP TO 113
DEGREES. TYING THE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
BOTH KLBB AND KCDS. THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR KLBB IS 106 DEGREES SET
IN 2024. THE FORECAST HIGH FOR LUBBOCK IS 105 DEGREES. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD AT KCDS IS 111 DEGREES SET IN 2024 WITH A FORECAST HIGH OF
110 DEGREES. DUE TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES, A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT SUNDAY FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM FOR THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME, AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING
IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AROUND 15
TO 20 MPH. WITH RH VALUES REACHING AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE
REGION AND BREEZY WINDS, ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, SOUTH PLAINS, AND
ROLLING PLAINS FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
SADLY, THE HOT TEMPERATURES ARE HERE TO STAY FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE UPPER PATTERN FOR
MONDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE REGION. THICKNESS
INCREASES WILL INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE MORE DEGREES FOR
MONDAY. AREAS ON THE CAPROCK CAN EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 105
DEGREES. AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK CAN EXPECT HIGHS UP TO 113 DEGREES.
HIGHS ON MONDAY COULD POSSIBLY BREAK THE DAILY RECORD HIGH AT BOTH
KLBB AND KCDS. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EVERYDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE RETREAT OF THE UPPER
RIDGING, WE WILL SEE A COOL DOWN IN HIGH TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER NOT
BY MUCH AS HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEK REMAIN FORECASTED IN THE UPPER 90S
TO TRIPLE DIGITS. BY THE WEEKEND, MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGING
WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND EXPAND EAST BACK OVER THE REGION POSSIBLY
WARMING UP TEMPERATURES TO HEAT ADVISORY (105-109 DEGREES) LEVEL
AGAIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT CHANCES OF AFFECTING A TAF SITE ARE LOW
AT THE MOMENT.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ024>026-030>032-035>038-041>044.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ024>026-031-032.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01
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