710
FXUS64 KLUB 250333
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1033 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1021 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING.
SEVERE STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
FOLLOWING THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK AND WHAT COULD POSSIBLY BE THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR, A MILD OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS EXPECTED.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER FOR NORTHERN
AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN THE
NEXT HOUR, HOWEVER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND UPPER 80S ACROSS
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO RETREAT WEST. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK WEST BEFORE PARKING ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGING HAS EXITED THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN, HIGHS WILL ONLY
COOL A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY. HIGHS ON THE CAPROCK WILL
RANGE FROM 100 TO 104 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES OFF THE CAPROCK WILL
RANGE FROM 105 TO 108 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 1
PM UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
THE ROLLING PLAINS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE APEX SITTING
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BRINGING EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW TO THE
PANHANDLE. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN NM AND CO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH THE
STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST, REACHING OUR REGION BY THE EVENING. THE
GREATEST HAZARD EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS ARE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
OUTFLOWS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING FOR TUESDAY
EVENING, THEREFORE CAN EXPECT HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS AND WITH
DCAPE VALUES UP TO 2000 J/KG, DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CAN
EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE HAIL IS LOW WITH
MUCAPE VALUES < 100 J/KG. HOWEVER, SOME HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE PUSHING
EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EVERYDAY. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND UPPER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A VERY SIMILAR SET UP AS EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NM AND CO. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THESE STORMS
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR CWA. BY THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, CAUSING THE UPPER RIDGING TO EXPAND
BACK TO THE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL DRY OUT CONDITIONS AND
WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
VFR AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ024>026-031-
032-037-038-042>044.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...19
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