912
FXUS64 KLUB 251733
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1233 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS (SOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS) MAY
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.
- ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE
WARMER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY FOCUS OFF THE CAPROCK, WITH
MODELS PICKING UP ON LINGERING OUTFLOWS FROM CONVECTION EARLIER THIS
MORNING TO OUR NORTH. SERVING AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE EARLY EVENING AS UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO BECOMES INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION, WITH CONVECTIVE T'S BECOMING EASILY
ATTAINABLE GIVEN SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND MIXING TO
ERODE ANY CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. THOUGH WEAK
STEERING FLOW COULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
STORMS INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA. INCREASED MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL HELP
SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1800 J/KG WHILE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES
AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION. GIVEN THIS, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, WITH STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH CONSIDERING DCAPE VALUES AROUND
1500 J/KG WITH AN EVIDENT DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. ALTHOUGH NOT AS LIKELY, WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZED CONSIDERING THE
PRESENCE OF AT LEAST MODEST SHEAR, WHICH MAY PROMOTE INSTANCES OF
STRONGER STORM CORES AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END BEFORE
MIDNIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ
KICKS IN AND STORMS ARE ABLE TO GROW UPSCALE. NONETHELESS, A
STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
A GRADUAL COOLING TREND AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS,
ALONG WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE THANKS TO THE OVERNIGHT
COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A DRASTIC
COOL-DOWN, IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO REINFORCE THE COOLING TREND WITH
A DECREASE IN THICKNESS VALUES, YIELDING A NOT AS HOT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SIMILAR TO TUESDAY,
AS UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE INFLUENCES THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
HIGH, IT IS LIKELY WE WILL SEE BETTER MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND
THE H3 TO H7 LAYER ROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY INTO THE REGION.
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR TO TUESDAY, STORMS WILL
LIKELY STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE GIVEN LACK OF OVERALL SHEAR, ALTHOUGH
THE THREAT FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WILL STILL BE FAVORABLE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN NEW
MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
EARLY HOURS OF THURSDAY. A SIMILAR SETUP WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR STORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY
WEST OF I-27. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP MAINLY INTO THE HIGH 60S
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS COOLING PERIOD WILL BE BRIEF AS WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN SATURDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING REDEVELOPING, CAUSING
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO TRIPLE DIGITS EAST OF I-27 DURING THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
CONTINUING VFR AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES. LATER THIS EVENING, A COMPLEX OF TS WILL LIKELY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE REGION, WITH CONVECTIVE IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT KCDS
WELL AFTER SUNSET. THUNDER CURRENTLY APPEARS LESS LIKELY AT KLBB
AND KPVW, BUT OUTFLOW WINDS WILL NEVERTHELESS BRING A WIND SHIFT
TO THOSE SITES LATE THIS EVENING. IN GENERAL, EXPECT STRONG/ERRATIC
GUSTS AND MICROBURST POTENTIAL NEAR ANY TS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ024>026-031-032-
037-038-042>044.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...30
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