443
FXUS64 KLUB 260356
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1056 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY EVENINGS.
- RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BEFORE
HEATING UP AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL
CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES WILL REMAIN
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY HELPING TO MODERATE LOWS, GENERALLY
FALLING INTO THE 70S. THE STUBBORN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY.
MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL SEE FAIR
SKIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH WITH HEIGHT FALLS GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS, TEMPERATURES WILL (FINALLY) FALL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS THE AREA. THAT SAID, HIGHS WILL STILL CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW TRIPLE-DIGITS.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE TX/NM BORDER BY EVENING AND
WE WILL SEE THE USUAL THUNDERSTORM SETUP WITH LOW LEVEL ESE FLOW AND
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE,
OTHER SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE, ESPECIALLY BY THE MID-TO-LATE
EVENING TIME FRAME. SPECIFICALLY DCAPE VALUES ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING NEAR 1500 J/KG AND CAMS GENERALLY INDICATE A BOWING
STRUCTURE TO THE STORMS WHICH WOULD BOTH INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS. LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WOULD ALSO BE A
THREAT. THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THEY
APPROACH THE I-27 CORRIDOR, HOWEVER A FEW NON-SEVERE STORMS COULD
LINGER INTO THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOURS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LIGHT
ESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND A "COLD" FRONT WHICH WILL BRING SOME
WELCOME RELIEF TO OUR RECENT STRETCH OF TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES.
HIGH WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW-TO-MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER
SLIGHTLY WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS
YIELDING GENERALLY THE SAME SETUP AS THE PREVIOUS EVENING. FORCING
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AND 500 MB WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE DUE
NORTHERLY THAN NORTHWESTERLY, HOWEVER ONCE AGAIN DCAPE BETWEEN 1000-
1500 J/KG AND PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES IN SPOTS WILL BRING ABOUT
THE SAME STRONG WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOUR THREATS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOULD AGAIN TAPER OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE
RIDGE WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN, BUT MOVE BACK EASTWARD FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND, THEREBY INHIBITING ANY ADDITIONAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
OVER OUR AREA. POPS LOOK BE LIMITED TO NONE FROM THEN ON INTO NEXT
WEEK AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AGAIN TO AT OR NEAR
TRIPLE-DIGITS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
OUTSIDE OF BLDU FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR LESS AT CDS, VFR WILL PREVAIL
WELL AWAY FROM TS. THE NEXT ROUND OF TS WEST OF AMA IS SET TO
PASS MOSTLY NORTH OF PVW LATER THIS EVENING AND LOSE ITS PUNCH
BEFORE REACHING CDS CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. CDS COULD SEE BRIEF TS
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS, BUT THIS SHOULD MOSTLY BE SOME SHOWERS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...93
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