517
FXUS64 KLUB 022305
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
605 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
- TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WILL BRING AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF CONVECTION TO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
ABSENT AS IT USUALLY IS THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE
TO RELY ON BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAT
WILL BE PRESENT. A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING THIS LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. WARM TEMPERATURES AND A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL LEAD TO INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. CAPPING WILL BE MINIMAL UNDER THIS
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BUT WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH CLOUD
BASES. THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT IN DEVELOPING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS AREAS ON THE CAPROCK LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH. PULSY STORMS WILL
BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION BUT WIND GUSTS INTO THE 50S
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THICKNESS VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO TICK UP BOTH
TODAY AND ON THURSDAY LEADING TO INCREASED TEMPERATURES BOTH
AFTERNOONS. FOR THURSDAY'S WEATHER, SEE ABOVE. NEARLY IDENTICAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST POSITION OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCES OF
CONVECTION TO SHIFT TO THE EAST MORE ONTO THE CAPROCK.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US
ON FRIDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STORMS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL KEEP THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH ANCHORED NEAR THE
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 ON THE CAPROCK ON FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BRING HIGH BASED
CONVECTION BUT WITH LOW CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS. THERE WILL BE NO
RELIEF TO THE HEAT THIS WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US
WILL SHIFT WESTWARD WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE NEARLY OVERHEAD
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA IN NEW MEXICO WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES ACROSS WEST
TEXAS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING
KPVW AS OF 23Z, AND THIS BOUNDARY IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS.
INCLUDED VCSH THROUGH 02Z AT KPVW TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AT KLBB/KPVW, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE A
PROB30 AT THIS RANGE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...24
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