663
FXUS64 KLUB 032321
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
- NEAR-RECORD HIGHS TODAY WILL EDGE LOWER THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
- SOME STORMS MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK TODAY, BEFORE RETREATING TO
THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
THE EASTERN FRINGES OF A MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WAS FOUND
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE CAPROCK LATE THIS MORNING. ALONG WITH
STRONG HEATING, SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND MINIMAL
INHIBITION, THE STAGE SHOULD BE PRIMED FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS, LIKELY MORE SCATTERED THAN ISOLATED
GIVEN GOOD CONSENSUS FROM CAMS. AROUND 1000 J/KG CAPES WITH SIMILAR
DCAPES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW DOWNBURSTS WITH BLOWING DUST. STORMS
WILL DWINDLE TOWARD SUNSET BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND RETURNS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, LIKELY FOCUSING FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE TX-NM BORDER AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS WEST ACCOMPANYING MODEST HEIGHT RISES. THERE
ARE SOME CAMS THAT OFFSET THIS MODEST SUBSIDENCE AND CONVECT OVER
MUCH OF THE CAPROCK FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT FOR NOW NBM'S SILENT POPS
WERE TRADED FOR 20 POPS CLOSER TO THE TX-NM BORDER. HIGH TEMPS FOR
FRIDAY CONTINUE TO SHAPE UP SIMILAR TO TODAY EXCEPT OFF THE CAPROCK
WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES
LOWER. LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS ARE EXPECTED TO GET CLOSE TO THEIR
RECORD HIGHS TODAY OF 101 AND 106, RESPECTIVELY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
ALTHOUGH WE LOSE THE PRECIP CHANCES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, THE ONLY BIT OF GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE HEAT DOME
RETURNING TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WON'T BE TOO
FORMIDABLE WITH H5 HEIGHTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER 5900S. DAILY HIGHS
IN THE 90S ON THE CAPROCK WITH UPPER 90S/100S OFF THE CAPROCK
LOOK ON TRACK BEFORE THE UPPER HIGH POTENTIALLY SHIFTS FARTHER
EAST BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, WE COULD EXPECT
MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO CREEP CLOSER TO US, ESPECIALLY BY LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
SCATTERED TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS EVENING, WITH VFR PREVAILING OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
KLBB CURRENTLY APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS IN THE FORM OF STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS IN THE NEAR TERM,
WITH LESSER CHANCES OF IMPACTS ELSEWHERE. CONVECTION WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET WITH QUIET WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF TS IS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN LATER TAF
CYCLES.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ024>026-031-032-
037-038-042>044.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...30
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