598
FXUS64 KLUB 040305
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1005 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND, BUT WILL
TREND SLIGHTLY LOWER NEXT WEEK.
- A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT DRY WEATHER
WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THURSDAY EVENING HIGHLIGHTS AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY WESTWARD OVER OK
AND INTO NW TX, A POSITIONING GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS
MILD, WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO LOW TO MID 70S BY FRIDAY
MORNING WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL LOW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, MINIMAL CHANGE IN H5
HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO OR EVEN A BIT COOLER
ON FRIDAY COMPARED TO THURSDAY. A WEAKNESS ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF THE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME CENTERED
OVER NM WILL ALSO RESULT IN YET ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IN STORM COVERAGE AND FAVORED LOCATION FOR DEVELOPMENT IS LOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MAGNITUDE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT MINIMAL
INHIBITION WHICH COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO
DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THAT BEING SAID, COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHEST
(THOUGH STILL SCATTERED AT BEST) NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE. STORMS WILL AGAIN QUICKLY
FADE AFTER SUNSET WITH ANOTHER QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXPECTED
HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
ONE MORE ROUND OF ISOLATED STORMS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE BEFORE THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CUTS OFF OUR SUPPLY OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING RIDGING FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, THOUGH AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW RECORD LEVELS. MODEL SPREAD STILL INCREASES
HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH THE PRECISE EVOLUTION
OF THE RIDING ALOFT REMAINING UNCERTAIN. EVEN SO, IT LOOKS UNLIKELY
THAT ANY MEANINGFUL MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE OVER THE WEST TX
REGION, AND THE LARGE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MAINTAIN A DRY
AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
SCATTERED TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS EVENING, WITH VFR PREVAILING OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
KLBB CURRENTLY APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS IN THE FORM OF STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS IN THE NEAR TERM,
WITH LESSER CHANCES OF IMPACTS ELSEWHERE. CONVECTION WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET WITH QUIET WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF TS IS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN LATER TAF
CYCLES.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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