022
FXUS64 KLUB 050500
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1200 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
- SUMMER HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
- A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK SATURDAY, WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE WESTERN EDGE OF EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ONLY
VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD. IT WILL THEREFORE BE ANOTHER HOT DAY TO START
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AGAIN REACH
INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA, MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY ROBUST OVER MUCH OF THE CAPROCK.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
FOCUSED WITHIN A DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE.
SCHC POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED WEST OF I-27, WITH A DRY FORECAST
FOR AREAS EAST. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, A FEW INSTANCES OF
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE
STORMS DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY, THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED
TO POSITION NEARLY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AT ZERO THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH DAILY HIGHS HOVERING IN THE 95-100F RANGE, ALTHOUGH WE
CURRENTLY EXPECT TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW RECORD-BREAKING
LEVELS. THE EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGING ALOFT BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, WITH SOME SOLUTIONS HINTING AT A NORTHWARD
RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS WHICH COULD RE-INTRODUCE SOME LOW STORM
CHANCES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN
21Z-03Z WEST OF LBB AND PVW. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS AFFECTING PVW
AND LBB IS VERY LOW.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...51
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