738
FXUS64 KLUB 080316
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1016 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1015 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WHEN RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE (UPPER 90S TO MID 100S).
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY (20-40% CHANCE).
- THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR A COOLER AND WETTER TREND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL US MONDAY EVENING. THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER
THE PACIFIC NW YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED TO NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA, AND
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOMORROW WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS CANADA.
LOCALLY, THE ABOVE NORMAL, HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM
COMPARED TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS
INTO MID-WEEK. GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS A TAD BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OFF THE CAPROCK ON TUES (HIGHS AROUND 102-103F), BUT WED
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AND THE PROBABILITY
OF REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA INCREASES ABOVE 50% ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. HIGHS ON
THE CAPROCK ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S. THESE VALUES WILL
BE NEAR OR ABOVE RECORD VALUES FOR LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS. NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AREA-WIDE,
SO WE'RE LOOKING AT 10- 15 DEGREE ANOMALIES. LOWS ALSO REMAIN
SEASONABLY WARM, NEAR 70 ON THE CAPROCK AND MID 70S OFF THE
CAPROCK, WHICH AGAIN IS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THAT AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN SFC LOW WILL SEND A FRONT ARCING AS
FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES BY WED, BUT CURRENT
GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP NORTH OF THE FA, AT LEAST
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST THIS WEEK IS PINPOINTING
EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT (OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS) TRACK
BEFORE STALLING AND WEAKENING. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE OUR
PRECIP CHANCES WED EVENING INTO THURS. BY THIS POINT IN THE
FORECAST, THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE SW
CONUS, RESULTING IN NW FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY THAT ADVECTS SOME OF
THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND RESULTS IN HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT, WHICH
ALONE ISN'T SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP BUT AT LEAST MAKES CONDITIONS A
BIT MORE SUPPORTIVE COMPARED TO BEING DIRECTLY BENEATH THE RIDGE.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES, GUIDANCE STILL
FAVORS THE FRONT STAYING NORTH OF OUR AREA WED PM, KEEPING POPS
HIGHER ACROSS WFO AMARILLO'S FA COMPARED TO OURS. HOWEVER, THE
FEW HIGH-RES MODELS THAT DO GO OUT THAT FAR DEPICT AN OUTFLOW
PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FA, SO PERHAPS THAT COULD
KICK OFF SOME CONVECTION. THE DEEP WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER (WITH
DCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG) WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT
PROGRESSIVE COLD POOLS/OUTFLOWS.
WHETHER IT IS THE FRONT ITSELF SAGGING SOUTH OR REMNANT OUTFLOWS
AIDING PRECIP DEVELOPMENT, THE MODEL BLEND HAS THE HIGHEST POPS ON
THURS (20-40%). WHILE A DRAMATIC COOLDOWN IS UNLIKELY, GUIDANCE
DOES FAVOR TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUES-WED, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 90S OFF THE CAPROCK. TEMPS
QUICKLY REBOUND LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS BACK EAST, ALBEIT WITH HEIGHTS NOT AS STRONG AS OUR MID-
WEEK RIDGE. NEVERTHELESS, 500MB HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY, RESULTING IN
HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 90S (ON THE CAPROCK) TO LOW 100S (OFF THE
CAPROCK). THESE FORECAST VALUES ARE A FEW DEGREES SHY OF THE
RECORDS FOR SEP 11-12.
GUIDANCE IS SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
TIMING OF THE NEXT PACIFIC NW UPPER LOW, FAVORING ITS EMERGENCE
ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY LEAD TO A
WELCOME COOLING TREND NEXT WEEK (ALTHOUGH BROAD MODEL SPREAD
REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT EXTENT OF THE COOLING). BOTH THE GEFS
AND EC ENS HAVE A REASONABLE CHANCE (20-50%) OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
NEXT TUES-WED (SEP 15-16). NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID-SEPTEMBER ARE IN
THE MID-80S. SOME SKEPTICISM OF THIS COOL DOWN IS STILL WARRANTED,
HOWEVER, AS DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT THE ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE
PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST US
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS MAY SWING TO SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AM BEFORE
RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY FOR THE AFTERNOON. A FEW FAIR WEATHER
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND 8-10 KFT AGL DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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