344
FXUS64 KLUB 090508
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1208 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1208 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
- RECORD BREAKING HEAT IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY, BEFORE A BRIEF COOL
DOWN ARRIVES THURSDAY.
- HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH RECORD
BREAKING HEAT ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE 597 DAM UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE CAPROCK AND LOWER 100S OFF THE
CAPROCK.DAILY RECORD TEMPERATURES AT CLIMATE SITES LUBBOCK AND
CHILDRESS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THREATENED. HOWEVER, HI-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE HAS STARTED HINTING AT MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE AREA
TRACKING INTO THE FA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WHILE THESE BOUNDARIES
WILL SERVE AS CONVERGENCE CENTERS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, THEY COULD ALSO THROW A WRENCH INTO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING HIGHS TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
WHAT NWP GUIDANCE SUGGEST WITH SURFACE FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY
RATHER THAN THE EXPECTED SOUTHERLY MAIN SURFACE FLOW. EVEN IF THESE
BOUNDARIES ALTER PEAK HEATING SLIGHTLY, IT WILL STILL BE QUITE HOT
ACROSS THE REGION, NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LATTER PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BRING
RETURNING STORM CHANCES AS SURFACE HEATING AND LINGERING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ATTEMPT TO OVERCOME CAPPING BENEATH THE UPPER
RIDGE. GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SURFACE FLOW, IT REMAINS
DIFFICULT TO DIFFERENTIATE WHAT IS THE TRUE COLD FRONT VERSUS
ADVANCING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL TRACK THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, SERVING AS
INITIATION POINTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE TRUE COLD
FRONT ARRIVING LATER DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE AREA DEPICT STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALONG WITH INVERTED-V PROFILES, SUGGESTING A DRY-SUB CLOUD LAYER,
WITH DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG. THEREFORE ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS WILL HAVE A THREAT OF PRODUCING STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS.
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, THOUGH
COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY PLACEMENT,
FROPA, ALONG WITH THE LLJ THAT MAY ALLOW STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE FLATTENED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
SPLIT INTO TWO CENTERS OF HIGH PRESSURE AS AN UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATES INTO THE NECONUS, WHILE AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIVE INTO THE PACNW. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, WEAK MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHWESTERN HIGH, IN
ADDITION TO WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE RIDGE, WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, A DECREASE IN GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS WITH THE FA SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HELP KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY ON THE COOLER
SIDE IN THE 90S. HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARM FRIDAY INTO THE MID 90S TO
LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS AS WE BEGIN TO SEE THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT BACK
EAST, CLOSER TO THE REGION.
AS THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST TRANSLATES EAST INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FROM THE PACNW THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER
HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE KICKED BACK OVER THE REGION.
IN RESPONSE, SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO AN
EASTWARD MOVING LEE SURFACE LOW TRACKING EAST INTO THE TX/OK
PANHANDLE OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. BRINGING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND AIDING IN STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING AT THE H7 LEVEL AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PARKED
JUST TO OUR EAST WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO AIDING IN THE UPTICK
OF THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
HIGH AND RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA, IT WILL AID IN A HOT
DAY SATURDAY, WITH RECORD BREAKING HEAT POSSIBLE AT BOTH LUBBOCK AND
CHILDRESS, WHILE A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED OFF THE CAPROCK WITH
HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST AROUND 100 TO 104 DEGREES. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED, THOUGH ANY WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE
UPPER HIGH TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE MAY GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE BEGINS DEPARTING EAST ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL
KEEP HIGHS FROM CLIMBING FURTHER, THOUGH STILL HOT IN THE LOWER TO
UPPER 90S WHICH IS STILL NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
ADDITIONALLY, FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY, AIDING IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AROUND THE H7 TO H3 LAYER.
BRINGING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS LOW.
TURNING TO NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AS STILL
HINTING AT A COOLER AND WETTER PERIOD AS NA UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND
MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HOWEVER,
THIS WILL DEPEND ENTIRELY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
CAN SURGE INTO THE AREA. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WISH-WASHY OVER THE LAST
FEW RUNS, WITH THE GEFS STILL TRENDING COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT COMING
IN WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. GIVEN THE ONGOING MODEL SPREAD, THE
PLAN FOR NOW IS TO MAINTAIN NBM TEMPERATURES AND POPS UNTIL FRONTAL
TIMING AND COVERAGE BECOMES CLEARER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...51
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