430
FXUS64 KLUB 162309
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
609 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 609 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
- DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS OVERNIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING TO LINGER
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS ON THE CAPROCK. THESE SHOWERS ARE SLOW
TO DIMINISH AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS, HIGHS ACROSS THE CAPROCK WILL REMAIN
IN THE LOWER 90S. SOME LOCALIZED AREAS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S. HIGHS FOR AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S
TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY EXPAND BACK WEST ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TODAY.
SUBSIDENCE BELOW THE RIDGING WILL DRY OUT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY COOL
THURSDAY, HOWEVER ONLY BY A DEGREE OR TWO. HIGHS IN THE 90S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SIMILAR TO TODAY, SOME LOCALIZED
AREAS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS
COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. PREVIOUS CAM RUNS WERE BRINGING
ISOLATED STORMS TO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER CURRENT RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN
TERMS OF FORCING, HOWEVER WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE, I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO OCCURRED.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
THE MAIN POINTS FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE DAILY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND A POSSIBLE COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE BACK EAST BEGINNING FRIDAY
BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT USHERING IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
TO THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVELS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON FRIDAY WILL
PRIMARILY REMAIN ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE NM/TX BORDER AS
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGING KEEPS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA DRY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MULTIPLE PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL PROLONG
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EVERYDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. HOT
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S ACROSS THE
REGION. SATURDAY WILL BE THE START OF A COOL DOWN THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS. SOME AREAS BY EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. HOWEVER, IF THE UPPER
RIDGING DOES NOT SHIFT EAST AS SOME MODELS ARE PREDICTING, WE MOST
LIKELY WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS AND HOT TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
VFR AND DRY WITH NO IMPACTFUL WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...93
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page