100
FXUS64 KLUB 172315
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
615 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
- CONTINUED WARM INTO THE WEEKEND UNTIL A COOLDOWN ON MONDAY.
- STORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY EVENING NEAR THE NM BORDER, THEN
ENVELOP THE FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
WE WILL SEE ONE FINAL DRY DAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. FOR TODAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD AND DE-AMPLIFY. THICKNESS/HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN
ROUGHLY THE SAME AS YESTERDAY BUT WITH LESS CLOUD COVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON THE CAPROCK. AREAS
OFF THE CAPROCK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR AND ABOVE
100 DEGREES F. A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITHIN THIS SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER, WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL CREATE
CAPPING LIKELY PREVENTING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN WEST TEXAS
WITH ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOCATED IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PARK NEAR THE ARKLATEX ON FRIDAY WITH
FURTHER DE-AMPLIFICATION AS A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW INCREASING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. AN INCREASE IN THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO. THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN CREATING MORE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BENEATH THIS LARGER SCALE ASCENT. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO INITIATE IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND DRIFT
INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CAPPING
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON SO ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED ON THE TEXAS SIDE OF THE TEXAS/NEW
MEXICO STATE LINE. WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO HIGH
CLOUD BASES AND A STRONG WIND THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
AS AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CHURNS SLOWLY EAST ON
FRIDAY, DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CARRY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS NEW MEXICO. THIS PROCESS WILL SEND A BAND
OF MONSOON MOISTURE TOWARD THE TX/NM BORDER BY THE EVENING COMPLETE
WITH SOME LOW POPS. THESE RAIN CHANCES IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THE EVENING AS THE AXIS OF
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE CAPROCK WITHIN BROAD TROUGHING. THIS
ABUNDANCE OF BACKGROUND ASCENT WITH PWAT ANOMALIES PUSHING +0.8" AND
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING PRECIP IN DEEP SW FLOW SUGGESTS SOME HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING COULD REDEVELOP AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL
DEEP CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, BUT THIS TIME FAVORING AREAS OFF
THE CAPROCK ALONG AND EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. MODELS HAVE
SADLY REJECTED A COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY, SO THIS KEEPS HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL ALL WEEKEND. PROVIDED THIS COLD FRONT REACHES OUR
AREA ON MONDAY, MORE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED EVEN WITH WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT ON THE HEELS OF SUNDAY'S TROUGH. THE UPPER FLOW THEN BACKS
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE MONSOONAL FETCH DEEPENS COURTESY OF A
LOW/TROUGH OVER SOCAL. ENSEMBLES FAVOR A COOL AND WET PATTERN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONCERN FOR MUCH OF THIS
MOISTURE TO HANG UP FARTHER WEST WITHIN DEEPER MERIDIONAL FLOW.
THIS IMPLIES POPS IN LATER FORECASTS MAY EXHIBIT A SHARPER
GRADIENT FROM W-E EITHER IN OR SOMEWHERE NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
VFR WITH STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...93
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