556
FXUS64 KLUB 200401
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1101 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
- CHANCES OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SEVERE STORMS.
- HIGHS IN THE 90S THIS WEEKEND, THEN COOLER STARTING MONDAY WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
ONGOING WEATHER THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO OVERPERFORM EXPECTATIONS
SO WE'LL NOT MAKE THIS TOO LONG. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS
ACROSS SERN ID/WRN WY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE
US IN A ZONAL FLOW REGIME IN THE MID LEVELS. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
EVENING'S (SATURDAY) ACTIVITY WILL PLAY INTO THE POTENTIAL EVOLUTION
OF STORMS ON SUNDAY. THE CAMS HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED THIS EVENING
WHILST THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION
THAT WE'VE SEEN SO FAR. THAT GUIDANCE SHOWS A PACIFIC FRONT PUSHING
IN SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A STANDARD COLD FRONT EASING IN AROUND
LUNCHTIME. INDICATIONS ARE, BY LATE AFTERNOON, WE'LL SEE
THUNDERSTORMS FIRE ACROSS THE REGION, PERHAPS FAVORING OUR EASTERN
HALF. GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDING, STRONG DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME RISK OF SUB-SEVERE TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
HAIL. AT THIS POINT, WE'LL PROBABLY INTITATE WITH 70MPH WINDS AND
QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO ON MONDAY
WHILE ANOTHER LOW COMES ASHORE ACROSS CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL
INCREASE MONSOON MOISTURE FROM LATE MONDAY PEAKING WEDNESDAY
FOCUSING A BIT TO OUR WEST, THENCE MOVING CLOSER INTO THE LATE WEEK.
THIS, IN TURN, WILL YIELD ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION (STORMS)
ACTIVITY FOR THE WEEK. IF YOU'RE LOOKING FOR SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
WEST TEXAS, THIS ISN'T THE WEEK. THE RISK OF THE STRONGER DOWNBURST
DAYS LOOKS TO DIMINISH AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AS LCLS SHARPLY LOWER
WITH INCREASED RH GIVEN THE LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES. IN FACT, WE
HAVE A NUMBER OF DAYS WHERE HIGHS MAY STICK TO THE 70S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. GRANTED, THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A BIT
OVERZEALOUS ON COOLING TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED THIS FALL, BUT
EVENTUALLY, FALL WILL TAKE HOLD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT KLBB/KPVW THROUGH ABOUT
02Z OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATING. AT PRESENT, IT APPEARS CHILDRESS
WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE STORM INFLUENTIAL REGION, BUT THERE IS
STILL ABOUT A 10 PCT CHANCE OF SOMETHING MOVING INTO THAT TERMINAL
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. OTHERWISE, VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
OF NOTE, ALL STORMS THIS EVENING WILL HAVE STRONG DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL. ANOTHER CHANCE OF STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT WE'LL SEE HOW TONIGHT EVOLVES BEFORE GETTING TOO MUCH IN THE
DETAILS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...26
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