559
FXUS64 KLUB 201726
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1226 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1217 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, PRIMARILY OFF THE CAPROCK. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
- MUCH COOLER THIS WEEK, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE GENERALLY HIGHER ON THE
CAPROCK THAN OFF THE CAPROCK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, AN UPPER LOW WAS POSITIONED OVER
WYOMING. A WEAK FRONT WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE AS OF 17Z/NOON. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH TODAY, PERHAPS AIDING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN AN OTHERWISE WEAK
FORCING REGIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT THE TYPICAL DEEP
PBL/HIGH DCAPE SIGNATURE THAT WE HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO IN
RECENT WEEKS, SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER MEAGER ACROSS
OUR AREA (AROUND 20 KTS), SO STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE LIMITED,
AND OUTFLOWS WILL BE A PRIMARY DRIVER OF THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
ONCE AGAIN. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING, THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PLACEMENT/COVERAGE OF STORMS, BUT MOST CAMS
TEND TO FAVOR THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS
(10-30% COVERAGE). TODAY SHOULD OFFER ONE MORE HOT DAY BEFORE A
NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN DURING THE COMING WEEK. TEMPS WERE IN THE 80S
AS OF THIS WRITING (17Z/NOON), BUT SHOULD RISE INTO THE 90S
ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON.
MOIST, EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ON MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO AID
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER MON PM. WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MIXED-LAYER CAPE (MLCAPE) APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG. LOWER CLOUD BASES LIMIT THE DCAPE, WITH
VALUES CLOSER TO 900 J/KG COMPARED TO THE 1500+ J/KG THAT HAS
BEEN COMMONPLACE LATELY, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE STRAIGHT AND RELATIVELY LONG,
WHICH SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL, HOWEVER, MEAGER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR. THE STORM CHANCES
ON MONDAY ARE INITIALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE CAPROCK (20-30%)
BEFORE SPREADING EAST DURING THE LATE EVENING. THE COOLING TREND
BEGINS MONDAY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S ON
THE CAPROCK, WITH UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S OFF THE CAPROCK. SINCE
JULY 18TH, THE LUBBOCK AIRPORT HAS HAD JUST ONE DAY WITH A HIGH
TEMP BELOW 90 DEGREES (WHICH OCCURRED LAST WEDNESDAY, SEPT 16).
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
THE KEY TAKEAWAY OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS AN UNSETTLED WEEK,
WITH FREQUENT PRECIP CHANCES, INCREASED CLOUD COVER, AND COOLER
TEMPS. FOR TUES/WED, THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
WEAKER UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOCATED TO OUR EAST, EXTENDING FROM E TX
NORTHWARD ONTO THE EAST-CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, AND AN UPPER LOW
LIFTING FROM NV TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL BE
PROVIDED BY A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SSW FLOW REGIME
ACROSS NM.
LOCALLY, THIS TRANSLATES TO SEVERAL DAYS OF CONTINUED MOIST,
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW LOWER CLOUD
BASES COMPARED TO RECENT WEEKS, WITH UNINSPIRING LAPSE RATES ALOFT
KEEPING INSTABILITY VALUES IN CHECK, THUS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
WITH ANY STORMS ON TUES-WED APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF STORMS TUES-
WED, THE GENERAL THEME IS THAT PRECIP CHANCES AND FORECAST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS INCREASE WITH WESTWARD EXTENT (AND ARE HIGHEST
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO). FOR EXAMPLE, THE NBM PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING 2" OF RAIN BETWEEN TUES AM AND THURS AM IS GREATER THAN
50% ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER, BUT DECREASES SHARPLY TO JUST 15-20%
ALONG THE I-27 CORRIDOR, AND LESS THAN 10% OFF THE CAPROCK. THIS
EXPECTATION IS CAPTURED IN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS, WHICH
KEEP THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) OF FLASH FLOODING CONFINED
TO OUR WESTERN FA ON TUES-WED.
THE NOCTURNAL ONSET OF THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD TRAP
MOISTURE AND KEEP CLOUD COVER PREVALENT TUES/WED NIGHT, AND I DO
WONDER IF THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW TEMPS STAYING A BIT WARMER THAN
THE NBM SUGGESTS. AT ANY RATE, LOWS IN THE 60S AND PERHAPS UPPER
50S WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES THAN THE CONDITIONS
THAT HAVE BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ON THE FLIP
SIDE, ALL THE CLOUDS COVER AND POTENTIAL PRECIP SHOULD KEEP HIGHS
MUCH COOLER, WITH MUCH OF THE CAPROCK FORECAST TO SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S, ROUGHLY 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT IS FORECAST FOR
TODAY. THE MID- WEEK DISTURBANCE STARTS TO LIFT NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK, BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES IN PLACE LOCALLY FOR THURS-FRI. AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, THE PRECIP CHANCES DO TREND LOWER (AND TEMPERATURES
TREND WARMER) AS A SUBDUED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS BACK WEST OVER THE
FA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE KCDS TERMINAL BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF THESE STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH INTO THE REGION DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE EAST TO NORTHEAST. LOW CIGS MAY FOLLOW AFTER
SUNRISE ON MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGHEST CHANCES AT KCDS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...01
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